Space Nuts Episode 499: Asteroid Updates, Life in the Cosmos, and SpaceX Mishaps
Join Andrew Dunkley and Professor Jonti Horner in this exciting episode of Space Nuts, where they delve into the latest developments in asteroid research, the ongoing quest for extraterrestrial life, and some recent SpaceX controversies. From the fate of asteroid 2024 YR4 to the intriguing possibilities of subsurface oceans on icy moons, this episode is packed with information that will keep you on the edge of your seat.
Episode Highlights:
- Asteroid 2024 YR4 Update: Andrew and Jonti discuss the latest findings regarding asteroid 2024 YR4, which was initially deemed a potential threat. They clarify the current low probability of impact and explore the implications for both Earth and the Moon, including what would happen if it were to collide with the lunar surface.
- Are We Alone in the Universe? The duo tackles the age-old question of extraterrestrial life, discussing new data and the challenges scientists face in searching for evidence of life beyond Earth. They consider the likelihood of finding simple versus complex life forms in the cosmos and the significance of ongoing missions aimed at detecting signs of life within our solar system.
- SpaceX's Recent Challenges: The conversation shifts to SpaceX, where Andrew and Jonti analyze the recent mishaps involving their rockets, including uncontrolled reentries and debris falling over populated areas. They discuss the implications of these events for space safety and the future of space exploration.
- Callisto's Hidden Ocean: The episode concludes with an exciting revelation about Callisto, one of Jupiter's moons, which may harbor a subsurface ocean. Jonti explains how new analysis techniques have strengthened the case for liquid water beneath its icy surface, further expanding the possibilities for life in our solar system.
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Stay curious, keep looking up, and join us next time for more stellar insights and cosmic wonders. Until then, clear skies and happy stargazing.
00:00 - Introduction and asteroid update
02:15 - Current status of asteroid 2024 YR4
10:30 - Discussion on extraterrestrial life
18:00 - SpaceX mishaps and debris concerns
26:45 - Callisto's potential subsurface ocean
30:00 - Closing thoughts and listener engagement
✍️ Episode References
Asteroid Impact Probability Analysis
https://www.nasa.gov/asteroid-impact (https://www.nasa.gov/asteroid-impact)
SETI Research and Extraterrestrial Life
https://www.seti.org/ (https://www.seti.org/)
Callisto's Subsurface Ocean Study
https://www.universetoday.com/callisto-ocean (https://www.universetoday.com/callisto-ocean)
Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/space-nuts-exploring-the-cosmos--2631155/support (https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/space-nuts-exploring-the-cosmos--2631155/support?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss) .
Episode link: https://play.headliner.app/episode/25812487?utm_source=youtube
00:00:00 --> 00:00:02 hi there welcome to another episode of
00:00:02 --> 00:00:04 Space Nuts I'm your host Andrew Dunley
00:00:04 --> 00:00:06 as always it is great to have your
00:00:06 --> 00:00:08 company hope you're well and I hope you
00:00:08 --> 00:00:11 can stay with us because we are going to
00:00:11 --> 00:00:14 give you yet another asteroid update yes
00:00:14 --> 00:00:17 it's still in the news I was reading
00:00:17 --> 00:00:19 stories online over the weekend and oh
00:00:19 --> 00:00:23 was all doom and gloom 2024 yr4 it's
00:00:23 --> 00:00:26 going to kill us all well let's find out
00:00:26 --> 00:00:28 the truth uh we're also going to answer
00:00:28 --> 00:00:31 a question uh it's not the definitive
00:00:31 --> 00:00:33 answer but it's the answer at this point
00:00:33 --> 00:00:35 in time are we
00:00:35 --> 00:00:38 alone and the reason new data that's
00:00:38 --> 00:00:41 been released SpaceX has got itself into
00:00:41 --> 00:00:43 the news again for all the wrong reasons
00:00:43 --> 00:00:46 and there might be another moon in our
00:00:46 --> 00:00:50 solar system that Harbors a liquid ocean
00:00:50 --> 00:00:52 we'll tell you which one it is on this
00:00:52 --> 00:00:55 episode of space nut 15 seconds guidance
00:00:55 --> 00:01:00 is internal 10 9 ignition SE quch St
00:01:00 --> 00:01:06 Space Nuts 5 4 3 2 1 2 3 4 5 5 4 3 2 1
00:01:06 --> 00:01:10 Space Nuts as night reported feels good
00:01:10 --> 00:01:12 and he is back for more it is jonty
00:01:12 --> 00:01:14 Horner professor of astrophysics at the
00:01:14 --> 00:01:17 University of Southern Queensland JY
00:01:17 --> 00:01:19 hello good afternoon how are you doing I
00:01:19 --> 00:01:23 am well good to see you uh and and JY
00:01:23 --> 00:01:26 warned me that we might hear uh some dog
00:01:26 --> 00:01:28 Interruption not from the dog star but
00:01:28 --> 00:01:31 from the dog dogs yes when um the other
00:01:31 --> 00:01:33 half turns up because they get very
00:01:33 --> 00:01:36 excited being really excited at people
00:01:36 --> 00:01:38 walking down the road so oh well yeah
00:01:38 --> 00:01:40 that's maybe you can hear them maybe you
00:01:40 --> 00:01:41 can't but I'm
00:01:41 --> 00:01:44 hearing the filters might be stopping it
00:01:44 --> 00:01:46 from getting through to the uh the
00:01:46 --> 00:01:48 recording sometimes that happens but uh
00:01:48 --> 00:01:52 yeah well we've heard um Jordy many many
00:01:52 --> 00:01:55 times on the podcast at Fred's house so
00:01:55 --> 00:01:58 yes um Not Unusual and we don't mind
00:01:58 --> 00:01:59 we've been interrupted by all sorts of
00:02:00 --> 00:02:02 creatures on this show over the years uh
00:02:02 --> 00:02:05 let's um start off with uh yet another
00:02:05 --> 00:02:08 update on our favorite asteroid that
00:02:08 --> 00:02:09 might not be our favorite if you read
00:02:10 --> 00:02:13 the popular PRI 2024 yr4 what's the
00:02:13 --> 00:02:16 latest um well the latest long and short
00:02:16 --> 00:02:18 is that catastrophe is averted it is
00:02:18 --> 00:02:22 almost certainly not going to hit us and
00:02:22 --> 00:02:23 this has come around a little bit quick
00:02:23 --> 00:02:25 than I was expecting actually but I've
00:02:25 --> 00:02:27 seen some beautiful visualizations
00:02:27 --> 00:02:30 released by both European space agen and
00:02:30 --> 00:02:31 NASA over the last few days that have
00:02:31 --> 00:02:34 shown what's going on y so I mentioned
00:02:34 --> 00:02:36 on the previous episodes that we found
00:02:36 --> 00:02:38 this object back on the 27th of December
00:02:38 --> 00:02:40 they immediately found some old images
00:02:40 --> 00:02:42 that went back to the 25th of December
00:02:42 --> 00:02:44 when it was closest to the earth and
00:02:44 --> 00:02:45 people have been observing it pretty
00:02:45 --> 00:02:47 full on ever since those it could do
00:02:47 --> 00:02:50 it's quite small quite f as it receded
00:02:50 --> 00:02:53 from the earth and end of January the
00:02:53 --> 00:02:55 odds of it hitting the Earth got high
00:02:55 --> 00:02:59 enough in 2032 in 8 years time that it
00:02:59 --> 00:03:00 was flagged up has been potentially
00:03:00 --> 00:03:02 threatening and it got the second
00:03:02 --> 00:03:05 highest ever rating on the poar scale so
00:03:05 --> 00:03:07 basically this thing is something to
00:03:07 --> 00:03:08 watch out for we're not saying it's
00:03:08 --> 00:03:10 going to hit the Earth but we need more
00:03:10 --> 00:03:12 data as time's gone on since then we've
00:03:12 --> 00:03:14 got more and more data and for for a
00:03:14 --> 00:03:17 while the probability of it hitting us
00:03:17 --> 00:03:20 on that dat on the 22nd of December 2032
00:03:20 --> 00:03:23 was increasing and that was exactly what
00:03:23 --> 00:03:25 you'd expect so you get more
00:03:25 --> 00:03:27 observations which means our knowledge
00:03:27 --> 00:03:29 of where it will be on that fateful day
00:03:29 --> 00:03:31 gets better so the area of uncertainty
00:03:31 --> 00:03:33 on where it will be gets smaller so
00:03:33 --> 00:03:35 you're shrinking the volume of space
00:03:35 --> 00:03:37 where the asteroid could be and if the
00:03:37 --> 00:03:40 Earth stays in that area the Earth
00:03:40 --> 00:03:42 becomes a bigger fraction of that total
00:03:42 --> 00:03:45 area so it's more likely to be hit yep
00:03:45 --> 00:03:46 and what I said at the time was
00:03:46 --> 00:03:48 eventually we'd get enough observations
00:03:48 --> 00:03:49 that the Earth could potentially fall
00:03:49 --> 00:03:52 outside that area so the area would
00:03:52 --> 00:03:53 shrink enough that the Earth kind of
00:03:53 --> 00:03:55 popped out of it fell out onto the other
00:03:55 --> 00:03:57 side and that's what's happened over the
00:03:57 --> 00:04:00 last few days now the Earth is not not
00:04:00 --> 00:04:02 totally and absolutely out of the firing
00:04:02 --> 00:04:04 line but it's almost as good as and I'm
00:04:05 --> 00:04:06 sure within a day or two it will drop to
00:04:06 --> 00:04:08 absolutely zero so as of the time we're
00:04:09 --> 00:04:11 recording this which is February the
00:04:11 --> 00:04:14 25th the latest probability of an impact
00:04:14 --> 00:04:18 is 2.7 * 10us 5 which
00:04:18 --> 00:04:21 means. not
00:04:21 --> 00:04:24 27% or 1 in
00:04:24 --> 00:04:26 37 now given the last week we were
00:04:26 --> 00:04:29 talking about 1 in 33 that's a very dram
00:04:29 --> 00:04:32 dramatic change and that's B the area
00:04:32 --> 00:04:34 that the object is going to be in has
00:04:34 --> 00:04:35 shrunk and shrunk and shrunk and the
00:04:35 --> 00:04:36 Earth has essentially popped out of the
00:04:36 --> 00:04:38 outside and that's what these beautiful
00:04:38 --> 00:04:40 visualizations that are popping up
00:04:40 --> 00:04:42 online are showing an interesting part
00:04:43 --> 00:04:44 of this though is that while Earth is
00:04:44 --> 00:04:46 out of the cros heads the Moon is still
00:04:46 --> 00:04:49 in the crosshairs o so there remains a
00:04:49 --> 00:04:50 possibility that this thing could hit
00:04:50 --> 00:04:52 the moon but the probability of the
00:04:52 --> 00:04:54 impact on the moon is still pretty low
00:04:54 --> 00:04:56 so it isn't a case of we're saying the
00:04:56 --> 00:04:59 Earth is spared watch out anybody who's
00:04:59 --> 00:05:01 part of project Artemis you know walking
00:05:01 --> 00:05:02 around on the moon in 8 years time if
00:05:03 --> 00:05:05 that happens yeah rather it's just that
00:05:05 --> 00:05:07 the moon still hasn't fallen out of that
00:05:07 --> 00:05:09 area yet but i' anticipate it probably
00:05:09 --> 00:05:11 will do so the most likely outcome is
00:05:11 --> 00:05:13 that this thing will come close but it's
00:05:14 --> 00:05:15 not going to be that
00:05:15 --> 00:05:18 close okay now what if it did hit the
00:05:18 --> 00:05:19 moon what would be the effect would it
00:05:20 --> 00:05:23 just make a mighty big crater it it make
00:05:23 --> 00:05:25 not even that Mighty not even that big
00:05:25 --> 00:05:28 it A good rule of thumb on the earth is
00:05:28 --> 00:05:30 that if something solid makes it to the
00:05:30 --> 00:05:31 surface of the Earth the Creator that
00:05:31 --> 00:05:34 thing will create is going to be to
00:05:34 --> 00:05:36 first order 19 times bigger than the
00:05:36 --> 00:05:38 impactor little bit of wiggle room in
00:05:38 --> 00:05:40 there obviously a different material for
00:05:40 --> 00:05:42 the impact would have an impact a
00:05:42 --> 00:05:44 different speed would have an impact but
00:05:44 --> 00:05:47 first order it's about a rule of 19 I
00:05:47 --> 00:05:49 think that changes slightly from body to
00:05:49 --> 00:05:51 body but not hugely because it's still
00:05:51 --> 00:05:53 the physics of rock hitting rock or
00:05:53 --> 00:05:56 metal hitting rock what that means is if
00:05:56 --> 00:05:57 this thing is the size of the best
00:05:57 --> 00:06:00 estimates which is about 55 M then
00:06:00 --> 00:06:03 you're looking at about a 1 km crater
00:06:03 --> 00:06:05 which I mean is substantial it's big
00:06:05 --> 00:06:06 enough for us to observe but it's
00:06:06 --> 00:06:09 nowhere near the biggest anywhere out
00:06:09 --> 00:06:11 there it's probably not big enough that
00:06:11 --> 00:06:12 a substantial amount of material will be
00:06:13 --> 00:06:15 ejected from the Moon to reach us but
00:06:15 --> 00:06:17 people have tried to feir Monga that a
00:06:17 --> 00:06:19 little bit I've seen a few posts from
00:06:19 --> 00:06:21 people online saying if it hits a moon
00:06:21 --> 00:06:23 the Earth will get hit by a lot of
00:06:23 --> 00:06:26 debris realistically not much debris
00:06:26 --> 00:06:28 would reach the Earth so we might get a
00:06:28 --> 00:06:29 little bit burning up in the atmosphere
00:06:29 --> 00:06:32 but we wouldn't even probably notice
00:06:32 --> 00:06:33 because this thing's fairly small I've
00:06:33 --> 00:06:35 seen some studies arguing that you need
00:06:35 --> 00:06:38 an impact or at least a kilometer across
00:06:38 --> 00:06:39 to eject enough material from the moon
00:06:40 --> 00:06:42 for us to really pick it up and narce it
00:06:42 --> 00:06:44 from the point of view of looking up
00:06:44 --> 00:06:46 okay all right well we've got how long
00:06:46 --> 00:06:50 to wait uh just under eight years so we
00:06:50 --> 00:06:53 can revisit this in the future when Fred
00:06:53 --> 00:06:55 is once again looking at Aurora in
00:06:55 --> 00:06:59 Scandinavia yes why not all right uh so
00:06:59 --> 00:07:01 the good news is the odds have plummeted
00:07:01 --> 00:07:04 and uh despite what I read in I don't
00:07:04 --> 00:07:07 know how many news outlets on Sunday the
00:07:07 --> 00:07:09 story is very very different today yeah
00:07:09 --> 00:07:12 it's a very fast moving story and if you
00:07:12 --> 00:07:14 can find these little animations online
00:07:14 --> 00:07:16 they're worth looking at because it
00:07:16 --> 00:07:19 shows you a line that is basically all
00:07:19 --> 00:07:20 the possible places the astroid could be
00:07:20 --> 00:07:22 it's that's the result of lots of
00:07:22 --> 00:07:23 simulations with slightly different
00:07:23 --> 00:07:27 initial conditions that all match within
00:07:27 --> 00:07:28 our uncertainty where the object is
00:07:28 --> 00:07:30 currently and you get this long stretch
00:07:30 --> 00:07:32 out line and then with every day of new
00:07:32 --> 00:07:34 observations that line gets shorter and
00:07:34 --> 00:07:36 shorter and shorter and now the Earth is
00:07:36 --> 00:07:38 right on the very end of it barely
00:07:38 --> 00:07:40 touched by any of them and I'm sure
00:07:40 --> 00:07:42 tomorrow the Earth will be Scot free
00:07:42 --> 00:07:46 okay that's good news very good
00:07:46 --> 00:07:53 news 3 2 1 Space Nuts now to a question
00:07:53 --> 00:07:56 that we do get from time to time from
00:07:56 --> 00:07:58 our audience asking about whether or not
00:07:58 --> 00:08:01 we are alone in the universe I suppose
00:08:01 --> 00:08:04 that is one of the big questions yet to
00:08:04 --> 00:08:08 be answered uh as far as the wider uh
00:08:08 --> 00:08:11 all humanity is concerned uh that
00:08:11 --> 00:08:14 question has um got new data attached to
00:08:14 --> 00:08:18 it which is um very interesting because
00:08:18 --> 00:08:21 of the way it's been collected and uh
00:08:21 --> 00:08:23 the downside is the result at this point
00:08:23 --> 00:08:26 in time at this point in time but um yes
00:08:26 --> 00:08:29 are we alone uh so far I think that's
00:08:29 --> 00:08:33 that's the best answer it is so there
00:08:33 --> 00:08:34 are two different ways that we look to
00:08:34 --> 00:08:35 answer this question and two different
00:08:35 --> 00:08:39 things we're looking for one is just to
00:08:39 --> 00:08:40 look for any evidence of any kind of
00:08:40 --> 00:08:42 life and we're doing that within the
00:08:42 --> 00:08:44 solar system and we're doing outside of
00:08:44 --> 00:08:46 the solar system by looking for subtle
00:08:46 --> 00:08:48 indications that there could be life in
00:08:48 --> 00:08:50 various places and that will probably
00:08:50 --> 00:08:52 amount to finding something that's out
00:08:52 --> 00:08:54 of equilibrium that shouldn't be there a
00:08:54 --> 00:08:56 good example being the phosphine
00:08:56 --> 00:08:58 observations on Venus a few years ago
00:08:58 --> 00:09:00 that reads a lot of excitement but are
00:09:00 --> 00:09:02 probably not actual life but we don't
00:09:02 --> 00:09:05 know it's finding something out of place
00:09:05 --> 00:09:07 and inferring that life is the best
00:09:07 --> 00:09:09 explanation that could exist for it and
00:09:09 --> 00:09:11 that's where we're going to be doing a
00:09:11 --> 00:09:12 lot of work in the coming decade or two
00:09:12 --> 00:09:14 looking at planet around of the
00:09:14 --> 00:09:18 stars that is a search for any life
00:09:18 --> 00:09:20 particularly simple life and I think you
00:09:20 --> 00:09:22 know as a little bit of an aside I think
00:09:22 --> 00:09:23 we're more likely to find simple life
00:09:23 --> 00:09:26 before we find complex life just because
00:09:26 --> 00:09:29 of the amount of available real estate
00:09:29 --> 00:09:31 and the amount of available time so if
00:09:31 --> 00:09:32 you look back at the history of the
00:09:32 --> 00:09:35 earth it seems to be accepted that we've
00:09:35 --> 00:09:36 had life on Earth for at least 3 and a
00:09:36 --> 00:09:39 half thousand million years theit
00:09:39 --> 00:09:40 fossils are found in the pilb in Western
00:09:40 --> 00:09:42 Australia that's really kind of cool
00:09:42 --> 00:09:44 we've only had complex life on Earth for
00:09:44 --> 00:09:46 about 500 million years so I think there
00:09:46 --> 00:09:48 are some studies this week I saw that
00:09:48 --> 00:09:49 suggest it might have been around a bit
00:09:49 --> 00:09:52 longer than that so what that means is
00:09:52 --> 00:09:54 if you could do something really bizarre
00:09:54 --> 00:09:56 and make a dice with seven sides which
00:09:56 --> 00:09:58 I've had somebody tell me is almost
00:09:58 --> 00:10:00 impossible to do but you know get a
00:10:00 --> 00:10:02 seven-sided die instead of a six-sided
00:10:02 --> 00:10:05 die unroll that die you're looking at
00:10:05 --> 00:10:06 the Earth at some point in that three
00:10:06 --> 00:10:09 and a half billion year period and only
00:10:09 --> 00:10:10 if you rolled a seven would you see the
00:10:10 --> 00:10:13 earth when there was complex life so six
00:10:13 --> 00:10:14 times out of seven you'd hit us when the
00:10:15 --> 00:10:17 simple life the other side of it is if
00:10:17 --> 00:10:18 you look at the habitats that life
00:10:19 --> 00:10:21 occupies on Earth you know there are a
00:10:21 --> 00:10:24 far far far far greater amount of
00:10:24 --> 00:10:26 habitats where simple life can Thrive
00:10:26 --> 00:10:28 than where complex life can Thrive you
00:10:28 --> 00:10:30 know if I took you to 40 ft and let
00:10:30 --> 00:10:32 go you wouldn't so much Flyers plummet
00:10:32 --> 00:10:34 in the immortal words multi python but
00:10:34 --> 00:10:36 we find bacteria up there if I drop you
00:10:36 --> 00:10:38 in you know one of the super heated
00:10:38 --> 00:10:40 lakes in yellis you'd dissolve quicker
00:10:40 --> 00:10:42 than people could pull you out and that
00:10:42 --> 00:10:44 would be unpleasant but we find bacteria
00:10:44 --> 00:10:46 there so there are far there's a far
00:10:46 --> 00:10:48 wider envelope of environments where you
00:10:48 --> 00:10:50 could find simple life than where you'd
00:10:50 --> 00:10:53 find complex life all of that is based
00:10:53 --> 00:10:55 on the caveat that we're looking at life
00:10:55 --> 00:10:57 like Earth life of course and that's a
00:10:57 --> 00:10:59 very big caveat it's an an assumption
00:10:59 --> 00:11:01 that is implicit in what most people
00:11:01 --> 00:11:03 discuss and I think it's important to
00:11:03 --> 00:11:06 make it explicit you watch Star Trek and
00:11:06 --> 00:11:08 you imagine mult Metal Men wandering
00:11:08 --> 00:11:09 around on magma planets and things like
00:11:09 --> 00:11:12 this and intelligent hydrogen clouds but
00:11:12 --> 00:11:14 when we're looking for things like life
00:11:14 --> 00:11:15 it makes more sense to look for
00:11:15 --> 00:11:17 something we know can exist than for
00:11:18 --> 00:11:20 something that we could speculate might
00:11:20 --> 00:11:22 exist and so we know of Earth life so
00:11:22 --> 00:11:24 that forms our first template and that
00:11:24 --> 00:11:26 will inform our first search even though
00:11:26 --> 00:11:27 you'd admit that there could be other
00:11:27 --> 00:11:29 kinds of Life out there
00:11:29 --> 00:11:32 and with Earth Life as a template you'd
00:11:32 --> 00:11:34 argue that for most of the time there's
00:11:34 --> 00:11:35 been life on Earth we only have simple
00:11:35 --> 00:11:38 life and in most of the places and
00:11:38 --> 00:11:40 environments you can find life on Earth
00:11:40 --> 00:11:42 you can only find simple life so that
00:11:42 --> 00:11:44 suggests to me simple life will be more
00:11:44 --> 00:11:46 common than complex life in the cosmos
00:11:46 --> 00:11:48 and we're more likely to find that of
00:11:48 --> 00:11:50 course the's z FEA saying that the only
00:11:50 --> 00:11:51 prediction you can make that is accurate
00:11:52 --> 00:11:54 is that all predictions will be wrong so
00:11:54 --> 00:11:56 when we do find life please don't shout
00:11:56 --> 00:11:59 at me but that's kind of where I take it
00:11:59 --> 00:12:02 but the coming back to the story after I
00:12:02 --> 00:12:04 get derailed and go on a
00:12:04 --> 00:12:06 diversion this story is looking at the
00:12:06 --> 00:12:09 other way we can search for life which
00:12:09 --> 00:12:12 is the one that has the potential for
00:12:12 --> 00:12:14 greater reward and greater excitement
00:12:14 --> 00:12:17 but a lower potential for success and
00:12:17 --> 00:12:19 that's the search for extraterrestrial
00:12:19 --> 00:12:21 intelligence oretti or the associated
00:12:21 --> 00:12:24 search for extraterrestrial technology
00:12:24 --> 00:12:26 so this is looking instead of looking
00:12:26 --> 00:12:29 for any life it's looking for life that
00:12:29 --> 00:12:32 has technology at least as advanced as
00:12:32 --> 00:12:34 ours that is in some way making itself
00:12:34 --> 00:12:35 known to the
00:12:36 --> 00:12:38 cosmos now some degree I've heard this
00:12:38 --> 00:12:39 described as searching for a needle in a
00:12:39 --> 00:12:41 hair stack when you don't know what a
00:12:41 --> 00:12:42 hair stack is and you've never seen a
00:12:42 --> 00:12:46 needle it's trying to listen for
00:12:46 --> 00:12:50 something that another species that has
00:12:50 --> 00:12:51 technology would create that we could
00:12:52 --> 00:12:54 identify as being definitively caused by
00:12:54 --> 00:12:56 life and because a bit like the science
00:12:56 --> 00:12:59 fiction analogy earlier on we imagine a
00:12:59 --> 00:13:01 wide variety of things what this kind of
00:13:01 --> 00:13:06 work tends to do is focus on the things
00:13:06 --> 00:13:08 that we as Humanity do that we could
00:13:08 --> 00:13:09 detect if we were elsewhere in the
00:13:10 --> 00:13:11 cosmos with sufficiently advanced
00:13:11 --> 00:13:15 technology and the one that often gets a
00:13:15 --> 00:13:16 hat hung on it and said this is one
00:13:16 --> 00:13:20 we'll look at is a search for broadcasts
00:13:20 --> 00:13:21 I guess like this podcast is when it
00:13:21 --> 00:13:23 goes out on ABC and it's broadcast on
00:13:23 --> 00:13:26 the radio bits of it then that's been
00:13:26 --> 00:13:28 broadcast in all directions with a
00:13:28 --> 00:13:29 certain amount of power so that when
00:13:29 --> 00:13:31 somebody Tunes in in their C they can
00:13:31 --> 00:13:34 listen to it and that means that this
00:13:34 --> 00:13:36 broadcast will be winging its way out
00:13:36 --> 00:13:37 into space and somebody with a
00:13:37 --> 00:13:40 sufficiently sensitive radio receiver
00:13:40 --> 00:13:41 pointed at the Earth at just the right
00:13:41 --> 00:13:43 time could tune in and tell me that I'm
00:13:43 --> 00:13:45 talking rubbish essentially that's
00:13:45 --> 00:13:47 probably what would happen or the turn
00:13:47 --> 00:13:49 over and say look please don't cancel
00:13:49 --> 00:13:50 neighbors you know that needs to run on
00:13:50 --> 00:13:52 and on and
00:13:52 --> 00:13:57 on now you make an assumption that other
00:13:57 --> 00:13:59 technologically advanced spe species if
00:13:59 --> 00:14:00 they exist would follow a similar
00:14:00 --> 00:14:03 technology route to us then that
00:14:03 --> 00:14:04 suggests that there'll be a period of
00:14:04 --> 00:14:06 time when those species too broadcast to
00:14:06 --> 00:14:07 the
00:14:07 --> 00:14:10 cosmos now the analogy I use a little
00:14:10 --> 00:14:11 bit here is a bit like a toddler in a
00:14:11 --> 00:14:15 cave screaming its lungs out eventually
00:14:15 --> 00:14:17 they learn to control themselves so
00:14:17 --> 00:14:18 we're already finding on Earth that we
00:14:18 --> 00:14:21 are throwing less signal into space than
00:14:21 --> 00:14:22 we used to because it's more efficient
00:14:22 --> 00:14:24 to broadcast point to point are through
00:14:24 --> 00:14:26 cables so a lot of people will listen to
00:14:26 --> 00:14:29 this through their wired internet that
00:14:29 --> 00:14:31 comes through cables or through Heaven F
00:14:31 --> 00:14:33 fend through styling where it's point to
00:14:33 --> 00:14:36 point so there's not much wasted and So
00:14:36 --> 00:14:37 eventually people are predicting the
00:14:37 --> 00:14:40 Earth will go radio quied again but this
00:14:40 --> 00:14:43 is one way that we know we as a society
00:14:43 --> 00:14:46 are making ourselves obvious to aliens
00:14:46 --> 00:14:48 that are out there if they exist and if
00:14:48 --> 00:14:50 they've got the technology to listen in
00:14:50 --> 00:14:52 so that has inspired a lot of people to
00:14:52 --> 00:14:54 turn the telescopes Skyward with radio
00:14:54 --> 00:14:56 telescopes and listen to see if we can
00:14:56 --> 00:14:59 get alien signals and that's been fund
00:14:59 --> 00:15:02 mentally what set is it's been really
00:15:02 --> 00:15:03 useful to us in the Australian
00:15:03 --> 00:15:05 astronomic Community ex it's the main
00:15:05 --> 00:15:07 reason that the parks radio telescope
00:15:07 --> 00:15:08 still operating courtesy of the
00:15:08 --> 00:15:11 Breakthrough listen initiative but
00:15:11 --> 00:15:12 people have been listening and they've
00:15:12 --> 00:15:13 tried listening at all sorts of
00:15:13 --> 00:15:15 different frequencies they've done
00:15:15 --> 00:15:17 targeted Searchers looking at a few
00:15:17 --> 00:15:19 stars like the sun they've also
00:15:19 --> 00:15:22 piggybacked off other surveys where
00:15:22 --> 00:15:24 people are getting radio observations
00:15:24 --> 00:15:26 for a totally different reason and the
00:15:26 --> 00:15:27 setti people get hold of those
00:15:27 --> 00:15:30 observations and check just to see to
00:15:30 --> 00:15:32 see whether there's a TV broadcast bured
00:15:32 --> 00:15:34 in that essentially but the challenge of
00:15:34 --> 00:15:36 doing this historically is that it's
00:15:36 --> 00:15:38 very labor intensive because there's a
00:15:38 --> 00:15:40 lot of different radio sources out there
00:15:40 --> 00:15:43 that are natural and you need to rule
00:15:43 --> 00:15:45 them out you find a signal it looks
00:15:45 --> 00:15:47 weird but if it's natural it's not
00:15:47 --> 00:15:49 aliens so you've got to rule that out
00:15:49 --> 00:15:52 you've then got a whole heap of you know
00:15:52 --> 00:15:54 human generated signals that you've got
00:15:54 --> 00:15:56 to rule out and they can be harder
00:15:56 --> 00:15:57 because it could be spy satellites gone
00:15:58 --> 00:15:59 through another another is going to say
00:15:59 --> 00:16:01 to you well actually no you you've
00:16:01 --> 00:16:02 called us that was my spy satellite we
00:16:03 --> 00:16:04 were um trying to watch them filming
00:16:04 --> 00:16:05 neighbors I don't know why I've got
00:16:06 --> 00:16:07 Neighbors on the man given that I've
00:16:07 --> 00:16:09 never watched the thing but there you
00:16:09 --> 00:16:11 go being canel I think I think that's
00:16:11 --> 00:16:13 what it is I saw that story and given
00:16:13 --> 00:16:15 that my joke about you know searching
00:16:15 --> 00:16:16 for aliens is that they'll come and tell
00:16:16 --> 00:16:18 us to turn it off and stop it seems
00:16:18 --> 00:16:20 ironic but anyway you know it could be a
00:16:20 --> 00:16:21 spy satellite looking down it could be
00:16:21 --> 00:16:23 as simple as a microwave in the next
00:16:23 --> 00:16:24 building that somebody was warming the
00:16:24 --> 00:16:26 dinner up and that has actually happened
00:16:26 --> 00:16:29 before P detected microwaves you other
00:16:29 --> 00:16:31 buildings so it's really really
00:16:31 --> 00:16:32 complicated and what that means is that
00:16:33 --> 00:16:35 a lot of these efforts to look for alien
00:16:35 --> 00:16:37 technology and alien signals have been
00:16:37 --> 00:16:39 limited by the human resources available
00:16:39 --> 00:16:40 to
00:16:40 --> 00:16:43 them which brings us finally to this new
00:16:43 --> 00:16:44 survey and I know I've gone in a very
00:16:44 --> 00:16:47 long roundabout route there there's this
00:16:47 --> 00:16:49 incredible radio facility called the
00:16:49 --> 00:16:53 very large array over in the US that the
00:16:53 --> 00:16:54 square kilometer array is going to be
00:16:54 --> 00:16:55 bigger and better and we're going to
00:16:55 --> 00:16:57 have that in Australia so we can wear
00:16:57 --> 00:16:59 the flag and say woohoo but the very
00:16:59 --> 00:17:00 large array has been doing incredible
00:17:00 --> 00:17:03 observations for a very long time if I
00:17:03 --> 00:17:06 remember correctly those who like the
00:17:06 --> 00:17:08 movie contact which is based on the car
00:17:08 --> 00:17:10 Sean book some of the scenes were shot
00:17:10 --> 00:17:13 at the ver leray if I remember right so
00:17:13 --> 00:17:15 if I'm wrong again please don't shout
00:17:15 --> 00:17:17 too loudly but my memory is that that's
00:17:17 --> 00:17:19 the ver ler that features in that film
00:17:19 --> 00:17:23 yeah anyway the ver ler has spent a huge
00:17:23 --> 00:17:25 amount of time scanning particularly the
00:17:25 --> 00:17:27 Northern Hemisphere Sky because it's a
00:17:27 --> 00:17:29 northern hemisphere facility doing all
00:17:29 --> 00:17:32 sorts of radio astronomy observations of
00:17:32 --> 00:17:35 all sorts of things a team has developed
00:17:35 --> 00:17:38 something that they call Cosmic now I'm
00:17:38 --> 00:17:40 just finding the acronym here Cosmic is
00:17:40 --> 00:17:44 a commensal open source multimode
00:17:45 --> 00:17:46 interferometric
00:17:46 --> 00:17:48 cluster which is a mouthful which is why
00:17:48 --> 00:17:51 they call it Cosmic it's a very large
00:17:51 --> 00:17:54 computer and software setup that
00:17:54 --> 00:17:56 essentially attempts to automate that
00:17:56 --> 00:17:58 complex process that I described where
00:17:58 --> 00:17:59 you've got a rule out all of the
00:17:59 --> 00:18:02 possible signals it's been heavily built
00:18:02 --> 00:18:04 and coded so that every single
00:18:04 --> 00:18:07 observation that they get they can run
00:18:07 --> 00:18:09 through this Pipeline and it will say
00:18:09 --> 00:18:10 does it have anything in it that could
00:18:10 --> 00:18:13 look like it's of an alien origin filter
00:18:13 --> 00:18:15 it down heavily if it passes that first
00:18:15 --> 00:18:18 test then you run another test that said
00:18:18 --> 00:18:19 could any astronomical phenomenon
00:18:19 --> 00:18:22 explain this if it fails that test it
00:18:22 --> 00:18:25 gets thrown out next it says could it be
00:18:25 --> 00:18:26 anything that we know of that is of
00:18:27 --> 00:18:29 human origin and if it fails that test
00:18:29 --> 00:18:31 it's thrown out so it filters it down to
00:18:32 --> 00:18:34 give the people who do the checking a
00:18:34 --> 00:18:35 tiny short list rather than an
00:18:35 --> 00:18:37 incredible long
00:18:37 --> 00:18:40 list now doing that they've been able to
00:18:41 --> 00:18:42 take
00:18:42 --> 00:18:44 920
00:18:44 --> 00:18:46 different observational pointings from
00:18:46 --> 00:18:49 the very large array that's 920
00:18:49 --> 00:18:51 different radio observations of
00:18:52 --> 00:18:54 different parts of the night sky and
00:18:54 --> 00:18:55 analyze them one after another looking
00:18:55 --> 00:18:58 for any signal of aliance and this do
00:18:58 --> 00:19:01 clever things it looks for a signal that
00:19:01 --> 00:19:03 is localized on the sky so it looks like
00:19:03 --> 00:19:05 it's coming from one particular star it
00:19:05 --> 00:19:07 even looks to check for the red shift
00:19:07 --> 00:19:09 and the blue shift of that signal
00:19:09 --> 00:19:10 because if it's on a planet going around
00:19:10 --> 00:19:13 that star the frequency will change a
00:19:13 --> 00:19:14 little bit as a result of the planet's
00:19:14 --> 00:19:16 movement around the St so it digs into a
00:19:16 --> 00:19:19 whole heap of things to do these
00:19:19 --> 00:19:21 filters and allows them to throw a lot
00:19:22 --> 00:19:25 of things away so this has surveyed 82%
00:19:25 --> 00:19:26 of the entire Northern Hemisphere night
00:19:26 --> 00:19:29 sky like it actually 950 thousand
00:19:29 --> 00:19:31 pointings of the telescope and what they
00:19:31 --> 00:19:33 found was they flagged a few interesting
00:19:33 --> 00:19:34 signals none of them turn out to be
00:19:34 --> 00:19:37 aliens so after all this work after all
00:19:37 --> 00:19:40 this waffle after all my diversions the
00:19:40 --> 00:19:42 result is we found
00:19:42 --> 00:19:44 nothing but that's the risky run because
00:19:44 --> 00:19:47 at the end of the day if technologically
00:19:47 --> 00:19:49 advanced life is out there there's no
00:19:49 --> 00:19:51 guarantee it will broadcast this way as
00:19:51 --> 00:19:53 I said earlier on we're probably going
00:19:53 --> 00:19:55 to be radio quiet again within just a
00:19:55 --> 00:19:57 few decades even if we don't wipe
00:19:57 --> 00:20:00 ourselves out so we'll stop broadcasting
00:20:00 --> 00:20:01 so then there'll be a single little
00:20:01 --> 00:20:04 shell of radio emissions about a 100
00:20:04 --> 00:20:07 light years wide expanding into space
00:20:07 --> 00:20:09 around the Sun and if you're in that
00:20:09 --> 00:20:11 100-year window you'll be able to tune
00:20:11 --> 00:20:13 in and listen to us if you're too early
00:20:13 --> 00:20:16 or too late you wen't here now 100 years
00:20:16 --> 00:20:18 is a long time to me and you and I'd
00:20:18 --> 00:20:20 love to think how lasts a 100 years on
00:20:20 --> 00:20:22 this planet but in the scale of the
00:20:22 --> 00:20:24 cosmos our Earth has had life on it for
00:20:24 --> 00:20:27 three and a half thousand million years
00:20:27 --> 00:20:29 and only for a 100 Years of that
00:20:29 --> 00:20:31 has the Earth had a signal so that's a
00:20:31 --> 00:20:34 one in 35 million chance of looking at
00:20:34 --> 00:20:37 Earth while it's had life and hearing
00:20:37 --> 00:20:38 our radio
00:20:38 --> 00:20:40 broadcasts and that's lower odds than
00:20:40 --> 00:20:43 the asteroid hitting us yeah um it's
00:20:43 --> 00:20:44 also lower odds are winning um Power
00:20:44 --> 00:20:46 Ball
00:20:46 --> 00:20:49 anyway um yeah it's an interesting story
00:20:49 --> 00:20:51 in that okay yeah they've found a new
00:20:52 --> 00:20:54 way uh but they haven't found anything
00:20:54 --> 00:20:56 yet and they have had a lot of targets
00:20:56 --> 00:20:59 but um that doesn't mean it's
00:20:59 --> 00:21:02 not out there somewhere abut it's not
00:21:02 --> 00:21:04 saying there isn't intelligent life uh
00:21:04 --> 00:21:06 but I I do agree with you that finding
00:21:06 --> 00:21:09 microbial life or single cell life of
00:21:09 --> 00:21:13 some kind um is in the foreseeable
00:21:13 --> 00:21:15 future and we've got missions headed out
00:21:15 --> 00:21:18 in um in the very near future to to try
00:21:19 --> 00:21:21 and find just that we do we might even
00:21:21 --> 00:21:23 talk about those in the Q&A episode
00:21:23 --> 00:21:28 later on we might do that uh but um the
00:21:28 --> 00:21:31 the the probability of finding life in
00:21:31 --> 00:21:33 our own solar system is pretty
00:21:33 --> 00:21:35 reasonable I wouldn't like to put a
00:21:35 --> 00:21:37 number on it but uh I I think that the
00:21:37 --> 00:21:40 odds are pretty good Fred also feels the
00:21:40 --> 00:21:44 same way so uh I even that would be one
00:21:44 --> 00:21:47 of the greatest discoveries in human
00:21:47 --> 00:21:50 history because so far we only know one
00:21:50 --> 00:21:55 place where there is life and that's us
00:21:55 --> 00:21:59 uh so um you know time will tell but
00:21:59 --> 00:22:01 um when they get the super Calif
00:22:01 --> 00:22:04 fragilistic uh array up and running that
00:22:04 --> 00:22:07 that might make might get and people
00:22:07 --> 00:22:08 will be applying these same kind of
00:22:08 --> 00:22:10 techniques to the square kilometer ARR
00:22:10 --> 00:22:12 once it's up now because it's the
00:22:12 --> 00:22:14 obvious way to do things especially when
00:22:14 --> 00:22:15 you've got good computing power but I
00:22:15 --> 00:22:17 think the other thing this highlights
00:22:17 --> 00:22:20 which I think astronomy in general does
00:22:20 --> 00:22:23 really really well is the importance of
00:22:23 --> 00:22:26 reporting no results or negative results
00:22:26 --> 00:22:28 now once upon a time in the distant
00:22:28 --> 00:22:29 passed that day to the biologist and
00:22:30 --> 00:22:31 there was a real problem in her field
00:22:31 --> 00:22:34 that when people did an experiment and
00:22:34 --> 00:22:35 they found nothing they couldn't really
00:22:35 --> 00:22:38 get it published either the company that
00:22:38 --> 00:22:39 was sponsoring it wasn't very keen on
00:22:39 --> 00:22:41 them publishing it or the journal said
00:22:41 --> 00:22:42 well look you've not found anything so
00:22:42 --> 00:22:44 we're not going to report it now let's
00:22:44 --> 00:22:47 say you're doing an experiment that
00:22:47 --> 00:22:48 isn't going to find anything but it's
00:22:48 --> 00:22:51 not that accurate so there's a small
00:22:51 --> 00:22:53 uncertainty in your results you find
00:22:53 --> 00:22:55 nothing you don't publish it so someone
00:22:55 --> 00:22:56 else goes away and does the same
00:22:56 --> 00:22:59 experiment they're find nothing but
00:22:59 --> 00:23:01 eventually due to the way statistics
00:23:01 --> 00:23:03 worth someone might get a signal that
00:23:03 --> 00:23:05 looks interesting and they'll publish it
00:23:05 --> 00:23:06 and you get
00:23:06 --> 00:23:09 a almost
00:23:09 --> 00:23:12 misleading idea of whether this thing
00:23:12 --> 00:23:13 happens or not whether this thing works
00:23:13 --> 00:23:15 or not and this was something that she
00:23:15 --> 00:23:16 was concerned with she ended up leaving
00:23:16 --> 00:23:18 the field yeah um and it's a real
00:23:18 --> 00:23:20 challenge that you face in a lot of
00:23:20 --> 00:23:22 disciplines is that it is much much
00:23:22 --> 00:23:24 easier to publish a result that is
00:23:24 --> 00:23:27 explicitly we found something we observe
00:23:27 --> 00:23:29 something there is a signal we found it
00:23:29 --> 00:23:31 but publishing the opposite of that
00:23:31 --> 00:23:32 which is we looked and found nothing is
00:23:32 --> 00:23:35 very hard and astronomy has done and
00:23:35 --> 00:23:36 continues to do a really good job of
00:23:36 --> 00:23:38 people being able to publish the results
00:23:38 --> 00:23:40 when they find nothing and we find this
00:23:40 --> 00:23:42 in the exer planet game we observe a
00:23:42 --> 00:23:44 style we don't find any planets but
00:23:44 --> 00:23:45 we'll include it in a paper and we'll
00:23:45 --> 00:23:47 publish the data to say we watched the
00:23:47 --> 00:23:50 star for a decade and nothing happened
00:23:50 --> 00:23:51 and the beauty is that makes that data
00:23:51 --> 00:23:53 public it means that other people with
00:23:53 --> 00:23:55 similar levels of equipment to us don't
00:23:55 --> 00:23:58 waste their time but it also means that
00:23:58 --> 00:24:00 you you've got that data there so that
00:24:00 --> 00:24:02 somebody with higher resolution
00:24:02 --> 00:24:04 observations in future can use your data
00:24:04 --> 00:24:06 as well as part of their analysis and
00:24:06 --> 00:24:08 it's a really critical part of science
00:24:08 --> 00:24:09 to be able to report what you didn't
00:24:09 --> 00:24:12 find and I think it doesn't occur to me
00:24:12 --> 00:24:13 that often but there's a certain amount
00:24:13 --> 00:24:15 of pride I think in the fact that
00:24:15 --> 00:24:18 astronomy remains a discipline where you
00:24:18 --> 00:24:20 can try to look for something and fail
00:24:20 --> 00:24:21 and still get your work published and
00:24:21 --> 00:24:23 still progress your career because
00:24:23 --> 00:24:25 you've still Advanced our knowledge yeah
00:24:25 --> 00:24:27 because you've lowered the possibilities
00:24:27 --> 00:24:29 or you've you know lowered the fair
00:24:29 --> 00:24:31 space of what could be by ruling out
00:24:31 --> 00:24:35 what can't be there's also the fact that
00:24:35 --> 00:24:38 um what we're witnessing now is new
00:24:38 --> 00:24:40 studies and new papers being published
00:24:41 --> 00:24:45 based on historical data uh historical
00:24:45 --> 00:24:48 uh Gathering of information and they
00:24:48 --> 00:24:50 hadn't been able to analyze it the way
00:24:50 --> 00:24:52 they can now because the Technology's
00:24:52 --> 00:24:54 improved so they've been able to do
00:24:54 --> 00:24:56 studies now based on information that
00:24:56 --> 00:24:59 was published 20 30 years ago when the
00:24:59 --> 00:25:03 technology was Far inferior so you can
00:25:03 --> 00:25:05 you know you can use those those uh
00:25:05 --> 00:25:10 papers for for um yeah better opers and
00:25:10 --> 00:25:11 that's a point we will come back to with
00:25:11 --> 00:25:15 our final story in this I think SOA see
00:25:15 --> 00:25:18 that Fred has returned hello Fred Watson
00:25:18 --> 00:25:22 here he is hello how are you gentlemen
00:25:22 --> 00:25:24 we are wells nice to see you we knew you
00:25:25 --> 00:25:26 were going to drop in we thought we'd
00:25:26 --> 00:25:28 just surprise everyone we didn't preempt
00:25:28 --> 00:25:29 it
00:25:29 --> 00:25:30 because I also considered the
00:25:30 --> 00:25:33 possibility you might forgot yes I I
00:25:33 --> 00:25:34 considered that as well jet lag does
00:25:34 --> 00:25:37 funny things to your brain yes yes
00:25:37 --> 00:25:40 indeed it does um you came in right at
00:25:40 --> 00:25:41 the end of this story and if you'd like
00:25:41 --> 00:25:44 to read up on that search for extra
00:25:44 --> 00:25:46 terrestrials the new way of doing it
00:25:47 --> 00:25:49 that has found nothing yet you can do
00:25:49 --> 00:25:52 that at
00:25:52 --> 00:25:54 space.com okay we checked all four
00:25:54 --> 00:25:58 systems and It Go space nets all right
00:25:58 --> 00:26:01 um Fred are you just going to sort of
00:26:01 --> 00:26:03 would why don't we why don't we throw to
00:26:03 --> 00:26:05 you now that you're back and you can
00:26:05 --> 00:26:07 tell us a little bit about your your
00:26:07 --> 00:26:09 trip because you've been away for feels
00:26:09 --> 00:26:12 like four or five years no off no
00:26:12 --> 00:26:14 offense
00:26:14 --> 00:26:20 Johnny that was just one answer from
00:26:20 --> 00:26:23 me okay well I won't to go there but um
00:26:23 --> 00:26:28 the uh yes the trip was uh pretty hard
00:26:28 --> 00:26:29 work
00:26:29 --> 00:26:33 actually because uh we were man and I
00:26:33 --> 00:26:35 were leading one of her tour actually
00:26:35 --> 00:26:37 three of her tours uh three separate
00:26:37 --> 00:26:40 ones which were all back toback uh we
00:26:40 --> 00:26:43 started off in Sweden uh went through
00:26:43 --> 00:26:45 found norn Sweden far Norther than
00:26:45 --> 00:26:48 Norway for the first time I got to uh
00:26:48 --> 00:26:51 the North Cape uh a latitude of 71
00:26:51 --> 00:26:52 degrees it's a farest North have ever
00:26:52 --> 00:26:56 been I think um then we went down uh
00:26:56 --> 00:26:59 back down to Oslo flew across to ruic
00:26:59 --> 00:27:02 and had a really wet and
00:27:02 --> 00:27:06 snowy uh uh 10 days I think it was 11
00:27:06 --> 00:27:08 days in Iceland again going to bits of
00:27:08 --> 00:27:11 Iceland that I'd never seen um the
00:27:11 --> 00:27:13 Northwest in particular some quite
00:27:13 --> 00:27:16 extraordinary places there uh including
00:27:16 --> 00:27:19 um one of the highlights was the place
00:27:19 --> 00:27:23 where astronauts used to go to train in
00:27:23 --> 00:27:25 the Apollo era to train in geology and
00:27:25 --> 00:27:28 there's a little Museum there it's um uh
00:27:28 --> 00:27:32 basically a a small town with uh at the
00:27:32 --> 00:27:36 end of the road almost very uh not not
00:27:36 --> 00:27:38 very much to recommend it under normal
00:27:38 --> 00:27:40 circumstances but this amazing Museum
00:27:40 --> 00:27:43 and they get visits very frequently from
00:27:43 --> 00:27:45 past and present astronauts which is
00:27:45 --> 00:27:48 fabulous it was a great experience uh
00:27:48 --> 00:27:52 and then um we went from reic to Nook in
00:27:52 --> 00:27:55 Greenland where we spent the last 11
00:27:55 --> 00:28:00 Days of our tour Greenland is a totally
00:28:00 --> 00:28:02 fascinating place in every possible way
00:28:02 --> 00:28:05 it is stunning uh physically you have an
00:28:05 --> 00:28:08 ice sheet which we stood right at the
00:28:08 --> 00:28:11 edge of uh a few coastal towns and wait
00:28:11 --> 00:28:14 for this no roads between them not at
00:28:14 --> 00:28:18 all uh way all uh all transfer transport
00:28:19 --> 00:28:21 between towns in Greenland is either by
00:28:21 --> 00:28:25 boat or by air and we did it by air so
00:28:25 --> 00:28:29 yeah some amazing stuff what uh drove
00:28:29 --> 00:28:31 the trip of course were the chance to
00:28:31 --> 00:28:35 see sites like the Northern Lights uh
00:28:35 --> 00:28:39 chance to work on glassiers uh in
00:28:39 --> 00:28:41 Iceland and stand beside active
00:28:42 --> 00:28:45 volcanoes uh and the thing that blew my
00:28:45 --> 00:28:48 mind in Greenland were were the icebergs
00:28:48 --> 00:28:50 just astonishing these you know half
00:28:50 --> 00:28:52 kilometer long lumps of I floating past
00:28:52 --> 00:28:56 our hotel window uh as they carved off
00:28:56 --> 00:29:02 the uh the the um the the ulis ilulissat
00:29:02 --> 00:29:04 was the name of the town where we were
00:29:04 --> 00:29:06 at that time at the end of
00:29:06 --> 00:29:11 the I can't say the word ulat Fjord uh
00:29:11 --> 00:29:12 right at the other end of it is the
00:29:12 --> 00:29:14 Greenland ice sheet and it carves off
00:29:14 --> 00:29:17 all these icebergs um as you see them go
00:29:17 --> 00:29:20 past uh the I guess the other highlight
00:29:20 --> 00:29:22 was uh particularly in Northern Norway
00:29:22 --> 00:29:25 and Sweden and also again in Greenland
00:29:25 --> 00:29:27 uh some fabulous sightings of the Aurora
00:29:27 --> 00:29:30 Boreal we had some great T times with
00:29:30 --> 00:29:34 that wonderful images taken by our whole
00:29:34 --> 00:29:36 group and I got quite a few as well
00:29:37 --> 00:29:40 using sad to say one of these it's just
00:29:40 --> 00:29:43 unbelievable yeah they they do take
00:29:43 --> 00:29:45 amazing pictures I saw a couple that you
00:29:45 --> 00:29:47 posted early in your oh good yeah yeah
00:29:47 --> 00:29:49 forgotten i' done that it's five and a
00:29:49 --> 00:29:51 half weeks and um so it's been a long
00:29:51 --> 00:29:54 time it's been hard work looking after
00:29:54 --> 00:29:56 these wonderful customers that we have
00:29:56 --> 00:29:58 some of which some of whom might might
00:29:58 --> 00:30:01 be listening to this uh because uh a lot
00:30:01 --> 00:30:04 of our clients sort of came to us
00:30:04 --> 00:30:06 through space notes they're they're all
00:30:06 --> 00:30:08 fabulous people uh We've enjoyed their
00:30:08 --> 00:30:11 company throughout um three different
00:30:11 --> 00:30:13 groups one or two people in common
00:30:13 --> 00:30:15 throughout both of them uh and um had a
00:30:15 --> 00:30:19 great time uh the ones who listened
00:30:19 --> 00:30:22 during my absence was telling me how
00:30:22 --> 00:30:25 great they thought jonty is so that was
00:30:25 --> 00:30:27 good news because that's why we asked
00:30:27 --> 00:30:29 him to do the gig yeah the checks in the
00:30:29 --> 00:30:31 past Fred thank
00:30:31 --> 00:30:35 you um yeah so so hard work but very
00:30:36 --> 00:30:38 enjoyable uh and um I have to say man
00:30:38 --> 00:30:41 and I are sort of now recovering and
00:30:41 --> 00:30:43 facing the next big thing which is uh
00:30:43 --> 00:30:45 Dark Sky Conference in Melbourne in
00:30:45 --> 00:30:47 about two weeks time so there's 120
00:30:47 --> 00:30:50 people coming to that and uh we'll be
00:30:50 --> 00:30:52 talking about all that kind of thing
00:30:52 --> 00:30:55 yeah um Judy and I will be in Greenland
00:30:55 --> 00:30:57 uh and Iceland later this year so we
00:30:58 --> 00:30:59 we're really looking forward to it we're
00:30:59 --> 00:31:02 actually doing an iceberg tour yeah out
00:31:02 --> 00:31:04 on I don't know what kind of boat it is
00:31:04 --> 00:31:06 probably one that'll get me wet but um
00:31:06 --> 00:31:07 yeah really looking really looking
00:31:07 --> 00:31:10 forward to that see I think you should
00:31:10 --> 00:31:11 set the next trip or one of the future
00:31:11 --> 00:31:14 trips for that um to coincide with
00:31:14 --> 00:31:16 Geminid maximum as well Geminids are
00:31:16 --> 00:31:18 obviously the highlight of the year for
00:31:18 --> 00:31:21 everything and being in December that's
00:31:21 --> 00:31:24 perfect dark sky time so you could sit
00:31:24 --> 00:31:25 out under the northern lights and see
00:31:25 --> 00:31:28 natural fireworks as well oh there's uh
00:31:28 --> 00:31:30 always a special reason for watching the
00:31:31 --> 00:31:32 Geminids jonty which you might not be
00:31:32 --> 00:31:36 aware of but they Peak on my birthday oh
00:31:36 --> 00:31:39 so it's makes better it's the national
00:31:39 --> 00:31:42 it's a natural birthday present yeah and
00:31:42 --> 00:31:43 they've just got better and better and
00:31:43 --> 00:31:45 better as well I mean I know when I was
00:31:45 --> 00:31:47 watching them in the 90s they were very
00:31:47 --> 00:31:50 very good um and they they're still
00:31:50 --> 00:31:52 getting better on a decadal basis B see
00:31:52 --> 00:31:55 meteor streams gradually talking around
00:31:55 --> 00:31:56 and we've still not seen the best of
00:31:56 --> 00:31:58 them so they're still improving
00:31:58 --> 00:32:00 yeah yeah there you go all right so just
00:32:00 --> 00:32:02 one final comment from me if I may
00:32:02 --> 00:32:06 Andrew um and that is thanks to both of
00:32:06 --> 00:32:10 you for holding the for so well and
00:32:10 --> 00:32:12 especially jonty for jumping into the
00:32:12 --> 00:32:15 hot seat it was it's been Absol
00:32:15 --> 00:32:16 absolutely terrific
00:32:16 --> 00:32:19 you you know being being our favorite
00:32:19 --> 00:32:22 Depp and standby uh and um we look
00:32:22 --> 00:32:26 forward to welcoming you back in the
00:32:26 --> 00:32:28 always happy to I'm just glad had a good
00:32:28 --> 00:32:30 break that sounds fun it was it's it's
00:32:31 --> 00:32:32 been great it's been I'll show you how
00:32:32 --> 00:32:35 I've had to cope with jonty oh all right
00:32:35 --> 00:32:39 okay well you a downhill SL nice Merlo
00:32:39 --> 00:32:42 when it's 7 o'clock in the morning no um
00:32:42 --> 00:32:45 hey he's been terrific he really has
00:32:45 --> 00:32:47 despite the bad poetry I throw I throw
00:32:47 --> 00:32:51 at him from time to time
00:32:51 --> 00:32:53 yes you gonna stick around or you got to
00:32:53 --> 00:32:56 go um if if I may I'll stick around but
00:32:56 --> 00:32:58 it's jonty's gig I'm just going to sit
00:32:58 --> 00:33:00 in the background and enjoy it if that's
00:33:00 --> 00:33:02 all right yeah all right um well we're
00:33:02 --> 00:33:04 going to talk now about jonty's favorite
00:33:04 --> 00:33:07 punching bag and that is SpaceX what's
00:33:07 --> 00:33:10 what's the latest with them Jo yeah I I
00:33:10 --> 00:33:12 always and I know I say this quite often
00:33:12 --> 00:33:14 I try and te F even handed side of
00:33:14 --> 00:33:16 things when I talk about Elon Musk and
00:33:16 --> 00:33:17 SpaceX and what they do because I think
00:33:17 --> 00:33:20 it's like all good characters in books
00:33:20 --> 00:33:22 the best characters are not evil or good
00:33:22 --> 00:33:23 but they're somewhere in between and
00:33:23 --> 00:33:25 they do good things and bad things but
00:33:25 --> 00:33:27 this week I think we're talking more
00:33:27 --> 00:33:29 about the things that haven't quite
00:33:29 --> 00:33:32 worked right so earlier on I think
00:33:32 --> 00:33:34 possibly the first episode I was
00:33:34 --> 00:33:37 substituting in we talked about the
00:33:37 --> 00:33:39 Starship launch that went wrong and
00:33:39 --> 00:33:41 everything went boom and fragments fell
00:33:41 --> 00:33:44 over the Turks and Kos Islands that's
00:33:44 --> 00:33:47 and interestingly there is a link to a
00:33:47 --> 00:33:48 pretty lengthy and quite startling
00:33:48 --> 00:33:51 article on CNN which we might be able to
00:33:51 --> 00:33:53 put out with a podcasts from the 30th of
00:33:53 --> 00:33:55 January I'd not really followed up on it
00:33:55 --> 00:33:58 but people in the TS and kcos were
00:33:58 --> 00:34:00 complaining about the lack of Engagement
00:34:00 --> 00:34:01 from SpaceX the fact that they're
00:34:01 --> 00:34:03 finding debris all over the place a car
00:34:03 --> 00:34:05 was damaged by some of it and loads of
00:34:06 --> 00:34:07 it floating and washing up on the
00:34:07 --> 00:34:09 beaches and nobody's made any efforts to
00:34:09 --> 00:34:11 contact them or collect any or do the
00:34:11 --> 00:34:14 cleanup now that may have changed sparex
00:34:14 --> 00:34:16 has historically been reasonably good at
00:34:16 --> 00:34:19 cleaning up its mess but I was quite s
00:34:19 --> 00:34:22 reading that article through at the
00:34:22 --> 00:34:25 level to which there was a bit of upset
00:34:25 --> 00:34:27 there and the the photographs of all
00:34:27 --> 00:34:29 this de rewashing up on the beaches was
00:34:29 --> 00:34:31 quite startling when in the days after
00:34:31 --> 00:34:32 that it was just said oh it fell in the
00:34:33 --> 00:34:35 Atlantic it went over the T and Kos but
00:34:35 --> 00:34:37 it was out in open otion so that was
00:34:37 --> 00:34:39 quite sobering but I only came across
00:34:39 --> 00:34:41 that because see there was another
00:34:41 --> 00:34:43 high-profile SpaceX things didn't work
00:34:43 --> 00:34:46 as expected um that's made a lot of the
00:34:46 --> 00:34:47 news over the last week particularly on
00:34:47 --> 00:34:51 the BBC website but also on space.com
00:34:51 --> 00:34:54 fabulous images again all over the app
00:34:54 --> 00:34:56 formally known as Twitter and all over
00:34:56 --> 00:34:58 blue sky and things like
00:34:58 --> 00:35:01 face because one of spacex's Falcon 9
00:35:01 --> 00:35:05 Rockets the upper stages of those are
00:35:05 --> 00:35:07 not reusable these are the bits that go
00:35:07 --> 00:35:08 so high they can't just bring them back
00:35:08 --> 00:35:12 and land them and typically they bring
00:35:12 --> 00:35:13 them back in a controlled re-entry so
00:35:13 --> 00:35:15 they say this thing is going to come
00:35:15 --> 00:35:17 back to wor but we're going to force it
00:35:17 --> 00:35:19 to deit at a time we want it to in a
00:35:19 --> 00:35:20 place where it's going to be far from
00:35:21 --> 00:35:24 Land keeping it as safe as possible but
00:35:24 --> 00:35:26 this one in particular failed to come
00:35:26 --> 00:35:28 back in at the start of February and had
00:35:28 --> 00:35:30 gone out of control so everybody knew it
00:35:30 --> 00:35:32 was going to come back in at some point
00:35:32 --> 00:35:35 at some time in some place but nobody
00:35:35 --> 00:35:37 was really show why so it's like your
00:35:37 --> 00:35:39 typical failed attempt at being menacing
00:35:39 --> 00:35:41 you know at some time at some place in
00:35:41 --> 00:35:43 the indeterminate Future something bad
00:35:43 --> 00:35:46 might possibly happen maybe and then it
00:35:46 --> 00:35:49 did so there's all this footage from
00:35:49 --> 00:35:50 northern Europe starting from kind of
00:35:50 --> 00:35:54 Lincolnshire in the UK of yet another
00:35:54 --> 00:35:56 one of these space deis re-entry events
00:35:56 --> 00:35:58 spectacular incredible scenes that
00:35:58 --> 00:36:00 people have shot but the Deb actually
00:36:00 --> 00:36:02 made it to the ground in Fairly
00:36:02 --> 00:36:04 substantial chunks over Poland and
00:36:04 --> 00:36:06 potentially also over the Ukraine now
00:36:06 --> 00:36:08 I've not actually seen any reports
00:36:08 --> 00:36:10 showing DeBry on the ground in the
00:36:10 --> 00:36:12 Ukraine because obviously it's hard to
00:36:12 --> 00:36:13 get images out given all the other
00:36:13 --> 00:36:15 problems they're facing at the minute
00:36:15 --> 00:36:16 although to be fair this is the last
00:36:16 --> 00:36:18 thing that they need is additional bits
00:36:19 --> 00:36:21 of metal dropping on their country but
00:36:21 --> 00:36:24 there are lots of bits that fell over
00:36:24 --> 00:36:27 Poland including one bit that was found
00:36:27 --> 00:36:29 that is one half MERS by 1 meter that
00:36:29 --> 00:36:32 damaged some lights and stuff around a
00:36:32 --> 00:36:34 warehouse so this isn't just a bit of
00:36:34 --> 00:36:36 Deb burning a pal musle in the
00:36:36 --> 00:36:38 atmosphere this again is stuff making it
00:36:38 --> 00:36:40 to the ground intact which is where
00:36:40 --> 00:36:42 people get worried and it ties in quite
00:36:42 --> 00:36:43 nicely with some of the things that were
00:36:43 --> 00:36:45 being reported back with the Starship
00:36:45 --> 00:36:47 launch some statistic that was worked
00:36:48 --> 00:36:49 out based on the frequency things were
00:36:49 --> 00:36:52 coming back in in 2023 and our use of
00:36:52 --> 00:36:55 airspace saying that there was a 26%
00:36:55 --> 00:36:57 chance in any given year of a major
00:36:57 --> 00:37:00 space debr re-entry event overpopulated
00:37:00 --> 00:37:02 highly used airspace and that's exactly
00:37:02 --> 00:37:04 what this was the report a few years ago
00:37:04 --> 00:37:06 that said the likelihood of somebody
00:37:06 --> 00:37:08 dying from space zey in the next decade
00:37:08 --> 00:37:10 could be as high as one in 10 and this
00:37:10 --> 00:37:12 is a sobering reminder of that because
00:37:12 --> 00:37:13 the end of the day if a bit of a
00:37:13 --> 00:37:16 SpaceX rocket that's one meter by one
00:37:16 --> 00:37:19 and a half meter lands on your head
00:37:19 --> 00:37:20 that's going to put a sizable dent in
00:37:20 --> 00:37:23 your day and there is fabulous footage
00:37:23 --> 00:37:26 about this and I think the thing that
00:37:26 --> 00:37:28 offsets this is that space are trying to
00:37:28 --> 00:37:30 do things right to give them the credit
00:37:30 --> 00:37:32 they're bringing things back in as much
00:37:32 --> 00:37:33 as they can in a controlled fashion we
00:37:33 --> 00:37:35 talked about this with the stying sights
00:37:35 --> 00:37:37 the other week and on the whole they're
00:37:37 --> 00:37:39 trying to do that right now there are
00:37:39 --> 00:37:41 other concerns things like the pollution
00:37:41 --> 00:37:44 side of it but this is a big reminder
00:37:44 --> 00:37:47 that space is difficult things go wrong
00:37:47 --> 00:37:49 and when we continue to put this many
00:37:49 --> 00:37:51 Rockets up there from time to time some
00:37:51 --> 00:37:52 of them will come back in in an
00:37:52 --> 00:37:54 uncontrolled fashion and this is the
00:37:54 --> 00:37:56 second time just in this calendar year
00:37:56 --> 00:37:58 where sign significant trunks of Deb
00:37:58 --> 00:38:01 have fallen over populated airspace and
00:38:01 --> 00:38:05 bits have either landed or washed up on
00:38:05 --> 00:38:06 places where people live you know
00:38:06 --> 00:38:08 somebody's car was damaged in one event
00:38:08 --> 00:38:11 somebody's Warehouse damaged in another
00:38:11 --> 00:38:13 it's not all plan sailing I guess is a
00:38:13 --> 00:38:15 take on from this and there's a lot of
00:38:15 --> 00:38:17 fabulous coverage of it all over if you
00:38:17 --> 00:38:19 do a bit of browsing around oh yeah and
00:38:19 --> 00:38:21 some of the pictures are incredible in
00:38:21 --> 00:38:23 the footage um this video footage and
00:38:23 --> 00:38:28 and photographic um material that shows
00:38:28 --> 00:38:30 and and over a wide area over a very
00:38:30 --> 00:38:32 wide area from England right through to
00:38:32 --> 00:38:35 Poland these images have been published
00:38:35 --> 00:38:37 and um yeah I mean they're spectacular
00:38:37 --> 00:38:39 to look at but the fact that big chunks
00:38:39 --> 00:38:41 are hitting the ground and doing damage
00:38:41 --> 00:38:43 that is scary stuff and Fred you and I
00:38:43 --> 00:38:46 have talked about in the past not only
00:38:46 --> 00:38:48 the the threat or the Potential Threat
00:38:48 --> 00:38:50 to Life as a consequence of this uh
00:38:50 --> 00:38:54 human being killed or injured under
00:38:54 --> 00:38:57 these circumstances but also what the
00:38:57 --> 00:39:00 Imp might be in the insurance
00:39:00 --> 00:39:03 industry because uh people may have to
00:39:03 --> 00:39:05 insure against this kind of thing we've
00:39:05 --> 00:39:09 got um sorry jonty we've got uh starlink
00:39:09 --> 00:39:13 8 sorry Starship 8 coming up this week
00:39:13 --> 00:39:16 is that right the launch of the next uh
00:39:16 --> 00:39:18 yeah that that's come around quicker
00:39:18 --> 00:39:21 than anticipated and it's because
00:39:21 --> 00:39:23 spaceex are very transparent in their
00:39:23 --> 00:39:25 efforts to understand what went wrong so
00:39:25 --> 00:39:27 they've been able to escalate the
00:39:27 --> 00:39:30 approvals through um may or may not have
00:39:30 --> 00:39:32 anything also to do with um the
00:39:32 --> 00:39:35 prominence of their owner at the minute
00:39:35 --> 00:39:38 and his strong connections but yeah I'm
00:39:38 --> 00:39:39 surprised that they're launching again
00:39:39 --> 00:39:42 so quickly after that went wrong but
00:39:42 --> 00:39:45 they are very enthusiastic on testing
00:39:45 --> 00:39:48 things by destru they are quite rightly
00:39:48 --> 00:39:50 of the opinion that when things go wrong
00:39:50 --> 00:39:51 that's when you learn the most and
00:39:51 --> 00:39:52 that's when you can fix things and
00:39:52 --> 00:39:54 improve them and they've done a fabulous
00:39:54 --> 00:39:55 job that's how their whole business
00:39:56 --> 00:39:58 model has worked all the way through but
00:39:58 --> 00:40:00 it still feels a little bit too
00:40:00 --> 00:40:02 soon well they're talking about uh the
00:40:03 --> 00:40:06 28th of February actually yes the next
00:40:06 --> 00:40:09 uh Mega rocket launch so and most of
00:40:09 --> 00:40:10 these things are streamed live of course
00:40:10 --> 00:40:12 aren't they so you will be able to watch
00:40:12 --> 00:40:14 along with that if you're interested in
00:40:14 --> 00:40:15 that kind of thing and I think that's
00:40:15 --> 00:40:16 another really positive that's come out
00:40:16 --> 00:40:19 of this when I was a kid launchers were
00:40:19 --> 00:40:21 not as common but you only ever heard
00:40:21 --> 00:40:22 about them on the news when something
00:40:22 --> 00:40:24 went wrong and I remember as a kid
00:40:24 --> 00:40:26 Challenger I remember the other shuttle
00:40:27 --> 00:40:29 disaster stud in my PhD but other than
00:40:29 --> 00:40:31 that you couldn't watch it it's not like
00:40:31 --> 00:40:32 it was live and
00:40:33 --> 00:40:36 televised and yet now you can tune in
00:40:36 --> 00:40:37 you can watch these things that they
00:40:37 --> 00:40:40 happen both NASA launches but SpaceX
00:40:40 --> 00:40:42 launches it's fabulous it's a great time
00:40:42 --> 00:40:45 to be alive yeah oh it's reached a point
00:40:45 --> 00:40:47 where people go to watch these things
00:40:47 --> 00:40:49 like they do yeah um go to watch Nascar
00:40:49 --> 00:40:53 races and you only go for the crash so
00:40:53 --> 00:40:55 that's kind of that's kind of where it's
00:40:56 --> 00:40:59 it's headed sort of um and and uh SpaceX
00:40:59 --> 00:41:02 hasn't disappointed very they they've
00:41:02 --> 00:41:06 had um some several successful failures
00:41:06 --> 00:41:09 so um yes rapid unscheduled uh
00:41:09 --> 00:41:11 disassemblies is that what unscheduled
00:41:11 --> 00:41:14 disassembly is another one yes um anyway
00:41:14 --> 00:41:18 Friday apparently um the Starship eight
00:41:18 --> 00:41:20 launch is scheduled for so we'll see how
00:41:20 --> 00:41:23 that pans out be interesting to see if
00:41:23 --> 00:41:25 anybody flying to Johannesburg with
00:41:25 --> 00:41:26 Quantus gets theed with that one cuz
00:41:27 --> 00:41:28 that was another problem with the
00:41:28 --> 00:41:31 previous one because they are where they
00:41:31 --> 00:41:32 look to bring in the upper stage of
00:41:32 --> 00:41:35 Starship if it goes well is directly on
00:41:35 --> 00:41:36 the flight path from Sydney to
00:41:36 --> 00:41:39 Johannesburg and so Quant flights kept
00:41:39 --> 00:41:40 being delayed at short notice when
00:41:40 --> 00:41:42 SpaceX said we're going to launch
00:41:42 --> 00:41:43 actually no we're not oh no we're going
00:41:43 --> 00:41:45 to launch now no we're not because you
00:41:45 --> 00:41:47 can't fly through the airspace where a
00:41:47 --> 00:41:48 rocket might hit your plane even though
00:41:48 --> 00:41:52 the odds are vanishingly small