00:00:00 --> 00:00:02 hi there welcome to another episode of
00:00:02 --> 00:00:04 Space Nuts I'm your host Andrew Dunley
00:00:04 --> 00:00:06 as always it is great to have your
00:00:06 --> 00:00:08 company hope you're well and I hope you
00:00:08 --> 00:00:11 can stay with us because we are going to
00:00:11 --> 00:00:14 give you yet another asteroid update yes
00:00:14 --> 00:00:17 it's still in the news I was reading
00:00:17 --> 00:00:19 stories online over the weekend and oh
00:00:19 --> 00:00:23 was all doom and gloom 2024 yr4 it's
00:00:23 --> 00:00:26 going to kill us all well let's find out
00:00:26 --> 00:00:28 the truth uh we're also going to answer
00:00:28 --> 00:00:31 a question uh it's not the definitive
00:00:31 --> 00:00:33 answer but it's the answer at this point
00:00:33 --> 00:00:35 in time are we
00:00:35 --> 00:00:38 alone and the reason new data that's
00:00:38 --> 00:00:41 been released SpaceX has got itself into
00:00:41 --> 00:00:43 the news again for all the wrong reasons
00:00:43 --> 00:00:46 and there might be another moon in our
00:00:46 --> 00:00:50 solar system that Harbors a liquid ocean
00:00:50 --> 00:00:52 we'll tell you which one it is on this
00:00:52 --> 00:00:55 episode of space nut 15 seconds guidance
00:00:55 --> 00:01:00 is internal 10 9 ignition SE quch St
00:01:00 --> 00:01:06 Space Nuts 5 4 3 2 1 2 3 4 5 5 4 3 2 1
00:01:06 --> 00:01:10 Space Nuts as night reported feels good
00:01:10 --> 00:01:12 and he is back for more it is jonty
00:01:12 --> 00:01:14 Horner professor of astrophysics at the
00:01:14 --> 00:01:17 University of Southern Queensland JY
00:01:17 --> 00:01:19 hello good afternoon how are you doing I
00:01:19 --> 00:01:23 am well good to see you uh and and JY
00:01:23 --> 00:01:26 warned me that we might hear uh some dog
00:01:26 --> 00:01:28 Interruption not from the dog star but
00:01:28 --> 00:01:31 from the dog dogs yes when um the other
00:01:31 --> 00:01:33 half turns up because they get very
00:01:33 --> 00:01:36 excited being really excited at people
00:01:36 --> 00:01:38 walking down the road so oh well yeah
00:01:38 --> 00:01:40 that's maybe you can hear them maybe you
00:01:40 --> 00:01:41 can't but I'm
00:01:41 --> 00:01:44 hearing the filters might be stopping it
00:01:44 --> 00:01:46 from getting through to the uh the
00:01:46 --> 00:01:48 recording sometimes that happens but uh
00:01:48 --> 00:01:52 yeah well we've heard um Jordy many many
00:01:52 --> 00:01:55 times on the podcast at Fred's house so
00:01:55 --> 00:01:58 yes um Not Unusual and we don't mind
00:01:58 --> 00:01:59 we've been interrupted by all sorts of
00:02:00 --> 00:02:02 creatures on this show over the years uh
00:02:02 --> 00:02:05 let's um start off with uh yet another
00:02:05 --> 00:02:08 update on our favorite asteroid that
00:02:08 --> 00:02:09 might not be our favorite if you read
00:02:10 --> 00:02:13 the popular PRI 2024 yr4 what's the
00:02:13 --> 00:02:16 latest um well the latest long and short
00:02:16 --> 00:02:18 is that catastrophe is averted it is
00:02:18 --> 00:02:22 almost certainly not going to hit us and
00:02:22 --> 00:02:23 this has come around a little bit quick
00:02:23 --> 00:02:25 than I was expecting actually but I've
00:02:25 --> 00:02:27 seen some beautiful visualizations
00:02:27 --> 00:02:30 released by both European space agen and
00:02:30 --> 00:02:31 NASA over the last few days that have
00:02:31 --> 00:02:34 shown what's going on y so I mentioned
00:02:34 --> 00:02:36 on the previous episodes that we found
00:02:36 --> 00:02:38 this object back on the 27th of December
00:02:38 --> 00:02:40 they immediately found some old images
00:02:40 --> 00:02:42 that went back to the 25th of December
00:02:42 --> 00:02:44 when it was closest to the earth and
00:02:44 --> 00:02:45 people have been observing it pretty
00:02:45 --> 00:02:47 full on ever since those it could do
00:02:47 --> 00:02:50 it's quite small quite f as it receded
00:02:50 --> 00:02:53 from the earth and end of January the
00:02:53 --> 00:02:55 odds of it hitting the Earth got high
00:02:55 --> 00:02:59 enough in 2032 in 8 years time that it
00:02:59 --> 00:03:00 was flagged up has been potentially
00:03:00 --> 00:03:02 threatening and it got the second
00:03:02 --> 00:03:05 highest ever rating on the poar scale so
00:03:05 --> 00:03:07 basically this thing is something to
00:03:07 --> 00:03:08 watch out for we're not saying it's
00:03:08 --> 00:03:10 going to hit the Earth but we need more
00:03:10 --> 00:03:12 data as time's gone on since then we've
00:03:12 --> 00:03:14 got more and more data and for for a
00:03:14 --> 00:03:17 while the probability of it hitting us
00:03:17 --> 00:03:20 on that dat on the 22nd of December 2032
00:03:20 --> 00:03:23 was increasing and that was exactly what
00:03:23 --> 00:03:25 you'd expect so you get more
00:03:25 --> 00:03:27 observations which means our knowledge
00:03:27 --> 00:03:29 of where it will be on that fateful day
00:03:29 --> 00:03:31 gets better so the area of uncertainty
00:03:31 --> 00:03:33 on where it will be gets smaller so
00:03:33 --> 00:03:35 you're shrinking the volume of space
00:03:35 --> 00:03:37 where the asteroid could be and if the
00:03:37 --> 00:03:40 Earth stays in that area the Earth
00:03:40 --> 00:03:42 becomes a bigger fraction of that total
00:03:42 --> 00:03:45 area so it's more likely to be hit yep
00:03:45 --> 00:03:46 and what I said at the time was
00:03:46 --> 00:03:48 eventually we'd get enough observations
00:03:48 --> 00:03:49 that the Earth could potentially fall
00:03:49 --> 00:03:52 outside that area so the area would
00:03:52 --> 00:03:53 shrink enough that the Earth kind of
00:03:53 --> 00:03:55 popped out of it fell out onto the other
00:03:55 --> 00:03:57 side and that's what's happened over the
00:03:57 --> 00:04:00 last few days now the Earth is not not
00:04:00 --> 00:04:02 totally and absolutely out of the firing
00:04:02 --> 00:04:04 line but it's almost as good as and I'm
00:04:05 --> 00:04:06 sure within a day or two it will drop to
00:04:06 --> 00:04:08 absolutely zero so as of the time we're
00:04:09 --> 00:04:11 recording this which is February the
00:04:11 --> 00:04:14 25th the latest probability of an impact
00:04:14 --> 00:04:18 is 2.7 * 10us 5 which
00:04:18 --> 00:04:21 means. not
00:04:21 --> 00:04:24 27% or 1 in
00:04:24 --> 00:04:26 37 now given the last week we were
00:04:26 --> 00:04:29 talking about 1 in 33 that's a very dram
00:04:29 --> 00:04:32 dramatic change and that's B the area
00:04:32 --> 00:04:34 that the object is going to be in has
00:04:34 --> 00:04:35 shrunk and shrunk and shrunk and the
00:04:35 --> 00:04:36 Earth has essentially popped out of the
00:04:36 --> 00:04:38 outside and that's what these beautiful
00:04:38 --> 00:04:40 visualizations that are popping up
00:04:40 --> 00:04:42 online are showing an interesting part
00:04:43 --> 00:04:44 of this though is that while Earth is
00:04:44 --> 00:04:46 out of the cros heads the Moon is still
00:04:46 --> 00:04:49 in the crosshairs o so there remains a
00:04:49 --> 00:04:50 possibility that this thing could hit
00:04:50 --> 00:04:52 the moon but the probability of the
00:04:52 --> 00:04:54 impact on the moon is still pretty low
00:04:54 --> 00:04:56 so it isn't a case of we're saying the
00:04:56 --> 00:04:59 Earth is spared watch out anybody who's
00:04:59 --> 00:05:01 part of project Artemis you know walking
00:05:01 --> 00:05:02 around on the moon in 8 years time if
00:05:03 --> 00:05:05 that happens yeah rather it's just that
00:05:05 --> 00:05:07 the moon still hasn't fallen out of that
00:05:07 --> 00:05:09 area yet but i' anticipate it probably
00:05:09 --> 00:05:11 will do so the most likely outcome is
00:05:11 --> 00:05:13 that this thing will come close but it's
00:05:14 --> 00:05:15 not going to be that
00:05:15 --> 00:05:18 close okay now what if it did hit the
00:05:18 --> 00:05:19 moon what would be the effect would it
00:05:20 --> 00:05:23 just make a mighty big crater it it make
00:05:23 --> 00:05:25 not even that Mighty not even that big
00:05:25 --> 00:05:28 it A good rule of thumb on the earth is
00:05:28 --> 00:05:30 that if something solid makes it to the
00:05:30 --> 00:05:31 surface of the Earth the Creator that
00:05:31 --> 00:05:34 thing will create is going to be to
00:05:34 --> 00:05:36 first order 19 times bigger than the
00:05:36 --> 00:05:38 impactor little bit of wiggle room in
00:05:38 --> 00:05:40 there obviously a different material for
00:05:40 --> 00:05:42 the impact would have an impact a
00:05:42 --> 00:05:44 different speed would have an impact but
00:05:44 --> 00:05:47 first order it's about a rule of 19 I
00:05:47 --> 00:05:49 think that changes slightly from body to
00:05:49 --> 00:05:51 body but not hugely because it's still
00:05:51 --> 00:05:53 the physics of rock hitting rock or
00:05:53 --> 00:05:56 metal hitting rock what that means is if
00:05:56 --> 00:05:57 this thing is the size of the best
00:05:57 --> 00:06:00 estimates which is about 55 M then
00:06:00 --> 00:06:03 you're looking at about a 1 km crater
00:06:03 --> 00:06:05 which I mean is substantial it's big
00:06:05 --> 00:06:06 enough for us to observe but it's
00:06:06 --> 00:06:09 nowhere near the biggest anywhere out
00:06:09 --> 00:06:11 there it's probably not big enough that
00:06:11 --> 00:06:12 a substantial amount of material will be
00:06:13 --> 00:06:15 ejected from the Moon to reach us but
00:06:15 --> 00:06:17 people have tried to feir Monga that a
00:06:17 --> 00:06:19 little bit I've seen a few posts from
00:06:19 --> 00:06:21 people online saying if it hits a moon
00:06:21 --> 00:06:23 the Earth will get hit by a lot of
00:06:23 --> 00:06:26 debris realistically not much debris
00:06:26 --> 00:06:28 would reach the Earth so we might get a
00:06:28 --> 00:06:29 little bit burning up in the atmosphere
00:06:29 --> 00:06:32 but we wouldn't even probably notice
00:06:32 --> 00:06:33 because this thing's fairly small I've
00:06:33 --> 00:06:35 seen some studies arguing that you need
00:06:35 --> 00:06:38 an impact or at least a kilometer across
00:06:38 --> 00:06:39 to eject enough material from the moon
00:06:40 --> 00:06:42 for us to really pick it up and narce it
00:06:42 --> 00:06:44 from the point of view of looking up
00:06:44 --> 00:06:46 okay all right well we've got how long
00:06:46 --> 00:06:50 to wait uh just under eight years so we
00:06:50 --> 00:06:53 can revisit this in the future when Fred
00:06:53 --> 00:06:55 is once again looking at Aurora in
00:06:55 --> 00:06:59 Scandinavia yes why not all right uh so
00:06:59 --> 00:07:01 the good news is the odds have plummeted
00:07:01 --> 00:07:04 and uh despite what I read in I don't
00:07:04 --> 00:07:07 know how many news outlets on Sunday the
00:07:07 --> 00:07:09 story is very very different today yeah
00:07:09 --> 00:07:12 it's a very fast moving story and if you
00:07:12 --> 00:07:14 can find these little animations online
00:07:14 --> 00:07:16 they're worth looking at because it
00:07:16 --> 00:07:19 shows you a line that is basically all
00:07:19 --> 00:07:20 the possible places the astroid could be
00:07:20 --> 00:07:22 it's that's the result of lots of
00:07:22 --> 00:07:23 simulations with slightly different
00:07:23 --> 00:07:27 initial conditions that all match within
00:07:27 --> 00:07:28 our uncertainty where the object is
00:07:28 --> 00:07:30 currently and you get this long stretch
00:07:30 --> 00:07:32 out line and then with every day of new
00:07:32 --> 00:07:34 observations that line gets shorter and
00:07:34 --> 00:07:36 shorter and shorter and now the Earth is
00:07:36 --> 00:07:38 right on the very end of it barely
00:07:38 --> 00:07:40 touched by any of them and I'm sure
00:07:40 --> 00:07:42 tomorrow the Earth will be Scot free
00:07:42 --> 00:07:46 okay that's good news very good
00:07:46 --> 00:07:53 news 3 2 1 Space Nuts now to a question
00:07:53 --> 00:07:56 that we do get from time to time from
00:07:56 --> 00:07:58 our audience asking about whether or not
00:07:58 --> 00:08:01 we are alone in the universe I suppose
00:08:01 --> 00:08:04 that is one of the big questions yet to
00:08:04 --> 00:08:08 be answered uh as far as the wider uh
00:08:08 --> 00:08:11 all humanity is concerned uh that
00:08:11 --> 00:08:14 question has um got new data attached to
00:08:14 --> 00:08:18 it which is um very interesting because
00:08:18 --> 00:08:21 of the way it's been collected and uh
00:08:21 --> 00:08:23 the downside is the result at this point
00:08:23 --> 00:08:26 in time at this point in time but um yes
00:08:26 --> 00:08:29 are we alone uh so far I think that's
00:08:29 --> 00:08:33 that's the best answer it is so there
00:08:33 --> 00:08:34 are two different ways that we look to
00:08:34 --> 00:08:35 answer this question and two different
00:08:35 --> 00:08:39 things we're looking for one is just to
00:08:39 --> 00:08:40 look for any evidence of any kind of
00:08:40 --> 00:08:42 life and we're doing that within the
00:08:42 --> 00:08:44 solar system and we're doing outside of
00:08:44 --> 00:08:46 the solar system by looking for subtle
00:08:46 --> 00:08:48 indications that there could be life in
00:08:48 --> 00:08:50 various places and that will probably
00:08:50 --> 00:08:52 amount to finding something that's out
00:08:52 --> 00:08:54 of equilibrium that shouldn't be there a
00:08:54 --> 00:08:56 good example being the phosphine
00:08:56 --> 00:08:58 observations on Venus a few years ago
00:08:58 --> 00:09:00 that reads a lot of excitement but are
00:09:00 --> 00:09:02 probably not actual life but we don't
00:09:02 --> 00:09:05 know it's finding something out of place
00:09:05 --> 00:09:07 and inferring that life is the best
00:09:07 --> 00:09:09 explanation that could exist for it and
00:09:09 --> 00:09:11 that's where we're going to be doing a
00:09:11 --> 00:09:12 lot of work in the coming decade or two
00:09:12 --> 00:09:14 looking at planet around of the
00:09:14 --> 00:09:18 stars that is a search for any life
00:09:18 --> 00:09:20 particularly simple life and I think you
00:09:20 --> 00:09:22 know as a little bit of an aside I think
00:09:22 --> 00:09:23 we're more likely to find simple life
00:09:23 --> 00:09:26 before we find complex life just because
00:09:26 --> 00:09:29 of the amount of available real estate
00:09:29 --> 00:09:31 and the amount of available time so if
00:09:31 --> 00:09:32 you look back at the history of the
00:09:32 --> 00:09:35 earth it seems to be accepted that we've
00:09:35 --> 00:09:36 had life on Earth for at least 3 and a
00:09:36 --> 00:09:39 half thousand million years theit
00:09:39 --> 00:09:40 fossils are found in the pilb in Western
00:09:40 --> 00:09:42 Australia that's really kind of cool
00:09:42 --> 00:09:44 we've only had complex life on Earth for
00:09:44 --> 00:09:46 about 500 million years so I think there
00:09:46 --> 00:09:48 are some studies this week I saw that
00:09:48 --> 00:09:49 suggest it might have been around a bit
00:09:49 --> 00:09:52 longer than that so what that means is
00:09:52 --> 00:09:54 if you could do something really bizarre
00:09:54 --> 00:09:56 and make a dice with seven sides which
00:09:56 --> 00:09:58 I've had somebody tell me is almost
00:09:58 --> 00:10:00 impossible to do but you know get a
00:10:00 --> 00:10:02 seven-sided die instead of a six-sided
00:10:02 --> 00:10:05 die unroll that die you're looking at
00:10:05 --> 00:10:06 the Earth at some point in that three
00:10:06 --> 00:10:09 and a half billion year period and only
00:10:09 --> 00:10:10 if you rolled a seven would you see the
00:10:10 --> 00:10:13 earth when there was complex life so six
00:10:13 --> 00:10:14 times out of seven you'd hit us when the
00:10:15 --> 00:10:17 simple life the other side of it is if
00:10:17 --> 00:10:18 you look at the habitats that life
00:10:19 --> 00:10:21 occupies on Earth you know there are a
00:10:21 --> 00:10:24 far far far far greater amount of
00:10:24 --> 00:10:26 habitats where simple life can Thrive
00:10:26 --> 00:10:28 than where complex life can Thrive you
00:10:28 --> 00:10:30 know if I took you to 40 ft and let
00:10:30 --> 00:10:32 go you wouldn't so much Flyers plummet
00:10:32 --> 00:10:34 in the immortal words multi python but
00:10:34 --> 00:10:36 we find bacteria up there if I drop you
00:10:36 --> 00:10:38 in you know one of the super heated
00:10:38 --> 00:10:40 lakes in yellis you'd dissolve quicker
00:10:40 --> 00:10:42 than people could pull you out and that
00:10:42 --> 00:10:44 would be unpleasant but we find bacteria
00:10:44 --> 00:10:46 there so there are far there's a far
00:10:46 --> 00:10:48 wider envelope of environments where you
00:10:48 --> 00:10:50 could find simple life than where you'd
00:10:50 --> 00:10:53 find complex life all of that is based
00:10:53 --> 00:10:55 on the caveat that we're looking at life
00:10:55 --> 00:10:57 like Earth life of course and that's a
00:10:57 --> 00:10:59 very big caveat it's an an assumption
00:10:59 --> 00:11:01 that is implicit in what most people
00:11:01 --> 00:11:03 discuss and I think it's important to
00:11:03 --> 00:11:06 make it explicit you watch Star Trek and
00:11:06 --> 00:11:08 you imagine mult Metal Men wandering
00:11:08 --> 00:11:09 around on magma planets and things like
00:11:09 --> 00:11:12 this and intelligent hydrogen clouds but
00:11:12 --> 00:11:14 when we're looking for things like life
00:11:14 --> 00:11:15 it makes more sense to look for
00:11:15 --> 00:11:17 something we know can exist than for
00:11:18 --> 00:11:20 something that we could speculate might
00:11:20 --> 00:11:22 exist and so we know of Earth life so
00:11:22 --> 00:11:24 that forms our first template and that
00:11:24 --> 00:11:26 will inform our first search even though
00:11:26 --> 00:11:27 you'd admit that there could be other
00:11:27 --> 00:11:29 kinds of Life out there
00:11:29 --> 00:11:32 and with Earth Life as a template you'd
00:11:32 --> 00:11:34 argue that for most of the time there's
00:11:34 --> 00:11:35 been life on Earth we only have simple
00:11:35 --> 00:11:38 life and in most of the places and
00:11:38 --> 00:11:40 environments you can find life on Earth
00:11:40 --> 00:11:42 you can only find simple life so that
00:11:42 --> 00:11:44 suggests to me simple life will be more
00:11:44 --> 00:11:46 common than complex life in the cosmos
00:11:46 --> 00:11:48 and we're more likely to find that of
00:11:48 --> 00:11:50 course the's z FEA saying that the only
00:11:50 --> 00:11:51 prediction you can make that is accurate
00:11:52 --> 00:11:54 is that all predictions will be wrong so
00:11:54 --> 00:11:56 when we do find life please don't shout
00:11:56 --> 00:11:59 at me but that's kind of where I take it
00:11:59 --> 00:12:02 but the coming back to the story after I
00:12:02 --> 00:12:04 get derailed and go on a
00:12:04 --> 00:12:06 diversion this story is looking at the
00:12:06 --> 00:12:09 other way we can search for life which
00:12:09 --> 00:12:12 is the one that has the potential for
00:12:12 --> 00:12:14 greater reward and greater excitement
00:12:14 --> 00:12:17 but a lower potential for success and
00:12:17 --> 00:12:19 that's the search for extraterrestrial
00:12:19 --> 00:12:21 intelligence oretti or the associated
00:12:21 --> 00:12:24 search for extraterrestrial technology
00:12:24 --> 00:12:26 so this is looking instead of looking
00:12:26 --> 00:12:29 for any life it's looking for life that
00:12:29 --> 00:12:32 has technology at least as advanced as
00:12:32 --> 00:12:34 ours that is in some way making itself
00:12:34 --> 00:12:35 known to the
00:12:36 --> 00:12:38 cosmos now some degree I've heard this
00:12:38 --> 00:12:39 described as searching for a needle in a
00:12:39 --> 00:12:41 hair stack when you don't know what a
00:12:41 --> 00:12:42 hair stack is and you've never seen a
00:12:42 --> 00:12:46 needle it's trying to listen for
00:12:46 --> 00:12:50 something that another species that has
00:12:50 --> 00:12:51 technology would create that we could
00:12:52 --> 00:12:54 identify as being definitively caused by
00:12:54 --> 00:12:56 life and because a bit like the science
00:12:56 --> 00:12:59 fiction analogy earlier on we imagine a
00:12:59 --> 00:13:01 wide variety of things what this kind of
00:13:01 --> 00:13:06 work tends to do is focus on the things
00:13:06 --> 00:13:08 that we as Humanity do that we could
00:13:08 --> 00:13:09 detect if we were elsewhere in the
00:13:10 --> 00:13:11 cosmos with sufficiently advanced
00:13:11 --> 00:13:15 technology and the one that often gets a
00:13:15 --> 00:13:16 hat hung on it and said this is one
00:13:16 --> 00:13:20 we'll look at is a search for broadcasts
00:13:20 --> 00:13:21 I guess like this podcast is when it
00:13:21 --> 00:13:23 goes out on ABC and it's broadcast on
00:13:23 --> 00:13:26 the radio bits of it then that's been
00:13:26 --> 00:13:28 broadcast in all directions with a
00:13:28 --> 00:13:29 certain amount of power so that when
00:13:29 --> 00:13:31 somebody Tunes in in their C they can
00:13:31 --> 00:13:34 listen to it and that means that this
00:13:34 --> 00:13:36 broadcast will be winging its way out
00:13:36 --> 00:13:37 into space and somebody with a
00:13:37 --> 00:13:40 sufficiently sensitive radio receiver
00:13:40 --> 00:13:41 pointed at the Earth at just the right
00:13:41 --> 00:13:43 time could tune in and tell me that I'm
00:13:43 --> 00:13:45 talking rubbish essentially that's
00:13:45 --> 00:13:47 probably what would happen or the turn
00:13:47 --> 00:13:49 over and say look please don't cancel
00:13:49 --> 00:13:50 neighbors you know that needs to run on
00:13:50 --> 00:13:52 and on and
00:13:52 --> 00:13:57 on now you make an assumption that other
00:13:57 --> 00:13:59 technologically advanced spe species if
00:13:59 --> 00:14:00 they exist would follow a similar
00:14:00 --> 00:14:03 technology route to us then that
00:14:03 --> 00:14:04 suggests that there'll be a period of
00:14:04 --> 00:14:06 time when those species too broadcast to
00:14:06 --> 00:14:07 the
00:14:07 --> 00:14:10 cosmos now the analogy I use a little
00:14:10 --> 00:14:11 bit here is a bit like a toddler in a
00:14:11 --> 00:14:15 cave screaming its lungs out eventually
00:14:15 --> 00:14:17 they learn to control themselves so
00:14:17 --> 00:14:18 we're already finding on Earth that we
00:14:18 --> 00:14:21 are throwing less signal into space than
00:14:21 --> 00:14:22 we used to because it's more efficient
00:14:22 --> 00:14:24 to broadcast point to point are through
00:14:24 --> 00:14:26 cables so a lot of people will listen to
00:14:26 --> 00:14:29 this through their wired internet that
00:14:29 --> 00:14:31 comes through cables or through Heaven F
00:14:31 --> 00:14:33 fend through styling where it's point to
00:14:33 --> 00:14:36 point so there's not much wasted and So
00:14:36 --> 00:14:37 eventually people are predicting the
00:14:37 --> 00:14:40 Earth will go radio quied again but this
00:14:40 --> 00:14:43 is one way that we know we as a society
00:14:43 --> 00:14:46 are making ourselves obvious to aliens
00:14:46 --> 00:14:48 that are out there if they exist and if
00:14:48 --> 00:14:50 they've got the technology to listen in
00:14:50 --> 00:14:52 so that has inspired a lot of people to
00:14:52 --> 00:14:54 turn the telescopes Skyward with radio
00:14:54 --> 00:14:56 telescopes and listen to see if we can
00:14:56 --> 00:14:59 get alien signals and that's been fund
00:14:59 --> 00:15:02 mentally what set is it's been really
00:15:02 --> 00:15:03 useful to us in the Australian
00:15:03 --> 00:15:05 astronomic Community ex it's the main
00:15:05 --> 00:15:07 reason that the parks radio telescope
00:15:07 --> 00:15:08 still operating courtesy of the
00:15:08 --> 00:15:11 Breakthrough listen initiative but
00:15:11 --> 00:15:12 people have been listening and they've
00:15:12 --> 00:15:13 tried listening at all sorts of
00:15:13 --> 00:15:15 different frequencies they've done
00:15:15 --> 00:15:17 targeted Searchers looking at a few
00:15:17 --> 00:15:19 stars like the sun they've also
00:15:19 --> 00:15:22 piggybacked off other surveys where
00:15:22 --> 00:15:24 people are getting radio observations
00:15:24 --> 00:15:26 for a totally different reason and the
00:15:26 --> 00:15:27 setti people get hold of those
00:15:27 --> 00:15:30 observations and check just to see to
00:15:30 --> 00:15:32 see whether there's a TV broadcast bured
00:15:32 --> 00:15:34 in that essentially but the challenge of
00:15:34 --> 00:15:36 doing this historically is that it's
00:15:36 --> 00:15:38 very labor intensive because there's a
00:15:38 --> 00:15:40 lot of different radio sources out there
00:15:40 --> 00:15:43 that are natural and you need to rule
00:15:43 --> 00:15:45 them out you find a signal it looks
00:15:45 --> 00:15:47 weird but if it's natural it's not
00:15:47 --> 00:15:49 aliens so you've got to rule that out
00:15:49 --> 00:15:52 you've then got a whole heap of you know
00:15:52 --> 00:15:54 human generated signals that you've got
00:15:54 --> 00:15:56 to rule out and they can be harder
00:15:56 --> 00:15:57 because it could be spy satellites gone
00:15:58 --> 00:15:59 through another another is going to say
00:15:59 --> 00:16:01 to you well actually no you you've
00:16:01 --> 00:16:02 called us that was my spy satellite we
00:16:03 --> 00:16:04 were um trying to watch them filming
00:16:04 --> 00:16:05 neighbors I don't know why I've got
00:16:06 --> 00:16:07 Neighbors on the man given that I've
00:16:07 --> 00:16:09 never watched the thing but there you
00:16:09 --> 00:16:11 go being canel I think I think that's
00:16:11 --> 00:16:13 what it is I saw that story and given
00:16:13 --> 00:16:15 that my joke about you know searching
00:16:15 --> 00:16:16 for aliens is that they'll come and tell
00:16:16 --> 00:16:18 us to turn it off and stop it seems
00:16:18 --> 00:16:20 ironic but anyway you know it could be a
00:16:20 --> 00:16:21 spy satellite looking down it could be
00:16:21 --> 00:16:23 as simple as a microwave in the next
00:16:23 --> 00:16:24 building that somebody was warming the
00:16:24 --> 00:16:26 dinner up and that has actually happened
00:16:26 --> 00:16:29 before P detected microwaves you other
00:16:29 --> 00:16:31 buildings so it's really really
00:16:31 --> 00:16:32 complicated and what that means is that
00:16:33 --> 00:16:35 a lot of these efforts to look for alien
00:16:35 --> 00:16:37 technology and alien signals have been
00:16:37 --> 00:16:39 limited by the human resources available
00:16:39 --> 00:16:40 to
00:16:40 --> 00:16:43 them which brings us finally to this new
00:16:43 --> 00:16:44 survey and I know I've gone in a very
00:16:44 --> 00:16:47 long roundabout route there there's this
00:16:47 --> 00:16:49 incredible radio facility called the
00:16:49 --> 00:16:53 very large array over in the US that the
00:16:53 --> 00:16:54 square kilometer array is going to be
00:16:54 --> 00:16:55 bigger and better and we're going to
00:16:55 --> 00:16:57 have that in Australia so we can wear
00:16:57 --> 00:16:59 the flag and say woohoo but the very
00:16:59 --> 00:17:00 large array has been doing incredible
00:17:00 --> 00:17:03 observations for a very long time if I
00:17:03 --> 00:17:06 remember correctly those who like the
00:17:06 --> 00:17:08 movie contact which is based on the car
00:17:08 --> 00:17:10 Sean book some of the scenes were shot
00:17:10 --> 00:17:13 at the ver leray if I remember right so
00:17:13 --> 00:17:15 if I'm wrong again please don't shout
00:17:15 --> 00:17:17 too loudly but my memory is that that's
00:17:17 --> 00:17:19 the ver ler that features in that film
00:17:19 --> 00:17:23 yeah anyway the ver ler has spent a huge
00:17:23 --> 00:17:25 amount of time scanning particularly the
00:17:25 --> 00:17:27 Northern Hemisphere Sky because it's a
00:17:27 --> 00:17:29 northern hemisphere facility doing all
00:17:29 --> 00:17:32 sorts of radio astronomy observations of
00:17:32 --> 00:17:35 all sorts of things a team has developed
00:17:35 --> 00:17:38 something that they call Cosmic now I'm
00:17:38 --> 00:17:40 just finding the acronym here Cosmic is
00:17:40 --> 00:17:44 a commensal open source multimode
00:17:45 --> 00:17:46 interferometric
00:17:46 --> 00:17:48 cluster which is a mouthful which is why
00:17:48 --> 00:17:51 they call it Cosmic it's a very large
00:17:51 --> 00:17:54 computer and software setup that
00:17:54 --> 00:17:56 essentially attempts to automate that
00:17:56 --> 00:17:58 complex process that I described where
00:17:58 --> 00:17:59 you've got a rule out all of the
00:17:59 --> 00:18:02 possible signals it's been heavily built
00:18:02 --> 00:18:04 and coded so that every single
00:18:04 --> 00:18:07 observation that they get they can run
00:18:07 --> 00:18:09 through this Pipeline and it will say
00:18:09 --> 00:18:10 does it have anything in it that could
00:18:10 --> 00:18:13 look like it's of an alien origin filter
00:18:13 --> 00:18:15 it down heavily if it passes that first
00:18:15 --> 00:18:18 test then you run another test that said
00:18:18 --> 00:18:19 could any astronomical phenomenon
00:18:19 --> 00:18:22 explain this if it fails that test it
00:18:22 --> 00:18:25 gets thrown out next it says could it be
00:18:25 --> 00:18:26 anything that we know of that is of
00:18:27 --> 00:18:29 human origin and if it fails that test
00:18:29 --> 00:18:31 it's thrown out so it filters it down to
00:18:32 --> 00:18:34 give the people who do the checking a
00:18:34 --> 00:18:35 tiny short list rather than an
00:18:35 --> 00:18:37 incredible long
00:18:37 --> 00:18:40 list now doing that they've been able to
00:18:41 --> 00:18:42 take
00:18:42 --> 00:18:44 920
00:18:44 --> 00:18:46 different observational pointings from
00:18:46 --> 00:18:49 the very large array that's 920
00:18:49 --> 00:18:51 different radio observations of
00:18:52 --> 00:18:54 different parts of the night sky and
00:18:54 --> 00:18:55 analyze them one after another looking
00:18:55 --> 00:18:58 for any signal of aliance and this do
00:18:58 --> 00:19:01 clever things it looks for a signal that
00:19:01 --> 00:19:03 is localized on the sky so it looks like
00:19:03 --> 00:19:05 it's coming from one particular star it
00:19:05 --> 00:19:07 even looks to check for the red shift
00:19:07 --> 00:19:09 and the blue shift of that signal
00:19:09 --> 00:19:10 because if it's on a planet going around
00:19:10 --> 00:19:13 that star the frequency will change a
00:19:13 --> 00:19:14 little bit as a result of the planet's
00:19:14 --> 00:19:16 movement around the St so it digs into a
00:19:16 --> 00:19:19 whole heap of things to do these
00:19:19 --> 00:19:21 filters and allows them to throw a lot
00:19:22 --> 00:19:25 of things away so this has surveyed 82%
00:19:25 --> 00:19:26 of the entire Northern Hemisphere night
00:19:26 --> 00:19:29 sky like it actually 950 thousand
00:19:29 --> 00:19:31 pointings of the telescope and what they
00:19:31 --> 00:19:33 found was they flagged a few interesting
00:19:33 --> 00:19:34 signals none of them turn out to be
00:19:34 --> 00:19:37 aliens so after all this work after all
00:19:37 --> 00:19:40 this waffle after all my diversions the
00:19:40 --> 00:19:42 result is we found
00:19:42 --> 00:19:44 nothing but that's the risky run because
00:19:44 --> 00:19:47 at the end of the day if technologically
00:19:47 --> 00:19:49 advanced life is out there there's no
00:19:49 --> 00:19:51 guarantee it will broadcast this way as
00:19:51 --> 00:19:53 I said earlier on we're probably going
00:19:53 --> 00:19:55 to be radio quiet again within just a
00:19:55 --> 00:19:57 few decades even if we don't wipe
00:19:57 --> 00:20:00 ourselves out so we'll stop broadcasting
00:20:00 --> 00:20:01 so then there'll be a single little
00:20:01 --> 00:20:04 shell of radio emissions about a 100
00:20:04 --> 00:20:07 light years wide expanding into space
00:20:07 --> 00:20:09 around the Sun and if you're in that
00:20:09 --> 00:20:11 100-year window you'll be able to tune
00:20:11 --> 00:20:13 in and listen to us if you're too early
00:20:13 --> 00:20:16 or too late you wen't here now 100 years
00:20:16 --> 00:20:18 is a long time to me and you and I'd
00:20:18 --> 00:20:20 love to think how lasts a 100 years on
00:20:20 --> 00:20:22 this planet but in the scale of the
00:20:22 --> 00:20:24 cosmos our Earth has had life on it for
00:20:24 --> 00:20:27 three and a half thousand million years
00:20:27 --> 00:20:29 and only for a 100 Years of that
00:20:29 --> 00:20:31 has the Earth had a signal so that's a
00:20:31 --> 00:20:34 one in 35 million chance of looking at
00:20:34 --> 00:20:37 Earth while it's had life and hearing
00:20:37 --> 00:20:38 our radio
00:20:38 --> 00:20:40 broadcasts and that's lower odds than
00:20:40 --> 00:20:43 the asteroid hitting us yeah um it's
00:20:43 --> 00:20:44 also lower odds are winning um Power
00:20:44 --> 00:20:46 Ball
00:20:46 --> 00:20:49 anyway um yeah it's an interesting story
00:20:49 --> 00:20:51 in that okay yeah they've found a new
00:20:52 --> 00:20:54 way uh but they haven't found anything
00:20:54 --> 00:20:56 yet and they have had a lot of targets
00:20:56 --> 00:20:59 but um that doesn't mean it's
00:20:59 --> 00:21:02 not out there somewhere abut it's not
00:21:02 --> 00:21:04 saying there isn't intelligent life uh
00:21:04 --> 00:21:06 but I I do agree with you that finding
00:21:06 --> 00:21:09 microbial life or single cell life of
00:21:09 --> 00:21:13 some kind um is in the foreseeable
00:21:13 --> 00:21:15 future and we've got missions headed out
00:21:15 --> 00:21:18 in um in the very near future to to try
00:21:19 --> 00:21:21 and find just that we do we might even
00:21:21 --> 00:21:23 talk about those in the Q&A episode
00:21:23 --> 00:21:28 later on we might do that uh but um the
00:21:28 --> 00:21:31 the the probability of finding life in
00:21:31 --> 00:21:33 our own solar system is pretty
00:21:33 --> 00:21:35 reasonable I wouldn't like to put a
00:21:35 --> 00:21:37 number on it but uh I I think that the
00:21:37 --> 00:21:40 odds are pretty good Fred also feels the
00:21:40 --> 00:21:44 same way so uh I even that would be one
00:21:44 --> 00:21:47 of the greatest discoveries in human
00:21:47 --> 00:21:50 history because so far we only know one
00:21:50 --> 00:21:55 place where there is life and that's us
00:21:55 --> 00:21:59 uh so um you know time will tell but
00:21:59 --> 00:22:01 um when they get the super Calif
00:22:01 --> 00:22:04 fragilistic uh array up and running that
00:22:04 --> 00:22:07 that might make might get and people
00:22:07 --> 00:22:08 will be applying these same kind of
00:22:08 --> 00:22:10 techniques to the square kilometer ARR
00:22:10 --> 00:22:12 once it's up now because it's the
00:22:12 --> 00:22:14 obvious way to do things especially when
00:22:14 --> 00:22:15 you've got good computing power but I
00:22:15 --> 00:22:17 think the other thing this highlights
00:22:17 --> 00:22:20 which I think astronomy in general does
00:22:20 --> 00:22:23 really really well is the importance of
00:22:23 --> 00:22:26 reporting no results or negative results
00:22:26 --> 00:22:28 now once upon a time in the distant
00:22:28 --> 00:22:29 passed that day to the biologist and
00:22:30 --> 00:22:31 there was a real problem in her field
00:22:31 --> 00:22:34 that when people did an experiment and
00:22:34 --> 00:22:35 they found nothing they couldn't really
00:22:35 --> 00:22:38 get it published either the company that
00:22:38 --> 00:22:39 was sponsoring it wasn't very keen on
00:22:39 --> 00:22:41 them publishing it or the journal said
00:22:41 --> 00:22:42 well look you've not found anything so
00:22:42 --> 00:22:44 we're not going to report it now let's
00:22:44 --> 00:22:47 say you're doing an experiment that
00:22:47 --> 00:22:48 isn't going to find anything but it's
00:22:48 --> 00:22:51 not that accurate so there's a small
00:22:51 --> 00:22:53 uncertainty in your results you find
00:22:53 --> 00:22:55 nothing you don't publish it so someone
00:22:55 --> 00:22:56 else goes away and does the same
00:22:56 --> 00:22:59 experiment they're find nothing but
00:22:59 --> 00:23:01 eventually due to the way statistics
00:23:01 --> 00:23:03 worth someone might get a signal that
00:23:03 --> 00:23:05 looks interesting and they'll publish it
00:23:05 --> 00:23:06 and you get
00:23:06 --> 00:23:09 a almost
00:23:09 --> 00:23:12 misleading idea of whether this thing
00:23:12 --> 00:23:13 happens or not whether this thing works
00:23:13 --> 00:23:15 or not and this was something that she
00:23:15 --> 00:23:16 was concerned with she ended up leaving
00:23:16 --> 00:23:18 the field yeah um and it's a real
00:23:18 --> 00:23:20 challenge that you face in a lot of
00:23:20 --> 00:23:22 disciplines is that it is much much
00:23:22 --> 00:23:24 easier to publish a result that is
00:23:24 --> 00:23:27 explicitly we found something we observe
00:23:27 --> 00:23:29 something there is a signal we found it
00:23:29 --> 00:23:31 but publishing the opposite of that
00:23:31 --> 00:23:32 which is we looked and found nothing is
00:23:32 --> 00:23:35 very hard and astronomy has done and
00:23:35 --> 00:23:36 continues to do a really good job of
00:23:36 --> 00:23:38 people being able to publish the results
00:23:38 --> 00:23:40 when they find nothing and we find this
00:23:40 --> 00:23:42 in the exer planet game we observe a
00:23:42 --> 00:23:44 style we don't find any planets but
00:23:44 --> 00:23:45 we'll include it in a paper and we'll
00:23:45 --> 00:23:47 publish the data to say we watched the
00:23:47 --> 00:23:50 star for a decade and nothing happened
00:23:50 --> 00:23:51 and the beauty is that makes that data
00:23:51 --> 00:23:53 public it means that other people with
00:23:53 --> 00:23:55 similar levels of equipment to us don't
00:23:55 --> 00:23:58 waste their time but it also means that
00:23:58 --> 00:24:00 you you've got that data there so that
00:24:00 --> 00:24:02 somebody with higher resolution
00:24:02 --> 00:24:04 observations in future can use your data
00:24:04 --> 00:24:06 as well as part of their analysis and
00:24:06 --> 00:24:08 it's a really critical part of science
00:24:08 --> 00:24:09 to be able to report what you didn't
00:24:09 --> 00:24:12 find and I think it doesn't occur to me
00:24:12 --> 00:24:13 that often but there's a certain amount
00:24:13 --> 00:24:15 of pride I think in the fact that
00:24:15 --> 00:24:18 astronomy remains a discipline where you
00:24:18 --> 00:24:20 can try to look for something and fail
00:24:20 --> 00:24:21 and still get your work published and
00:24:21 --> 00:24:23 still progress your career because
00:24:23 --> 00:24:25 you've still Advanced our knowledge yeah
00:24:25 --> 00:24:27 because you've lowered the possibilities
00:24:27 --> 00:24:29 or you've you know lowered the fair
00:24:29 --> 00:24:31 space of what could be by ruling out
00:24:31 --> 00:24:35 what can't be there's also the fact that
00:24:35 --> 00:24:38 um what we're witnessing now is new
00:24:38 --> 00:24:40 studies and new papers being published
00:24:41 --> 00:24:45 based on historical data uh historical
00:24:45 --> 00:24:48 uh Gathering of information and they
00:24:48 --> 00:24:50 hadn't been able to analyze it the way
00:24:50 --> 00:24:52 they can now because the Technology's
00:24:52 --> 00:24:54 improved so they've been able to do
00:24:54 --> 00:24:56 studies now based on information that
00:24:56 --> 00:24:59 was published 20 30 years ago when the
00:24:59 --> 00:25:03 technology was Far inferior so you can
00:25:03 --> 00:25:05 you know you can use those those uh
00:25:05 --> 00:25:10 papers for for um yeah better opers and
00:25:10 --> 00:25:11 that's a point we will come back to with
00:25:11 --> 00:25:15 our final story in this I think SOA see
00:25:15 --> 00:25:18 that Fred has returned hello Fred Watson
00:25:18 --> 00:25:22 here he is hello how are you gentlemen
00:25:22 --> 00:25:24 we are wells nice to see you we knew you
00:25:25 --> 00:25:26 were going to drop in we thought we'd
00:25:26 --> 00:25:28 just surprise everyone we didn't preempt
00:25:28 --> 00:25:29 it
00:25:29 --> 00:25:30 because I also considered the
00:25:30 --> 00:25:33 possibility you might forgot yes I I
00:25:33 --> 00:25:34 considered that as well jet lag does
00:25:34 --> 00:25:37 funny things to your brain yes yes
00:25:37 --> 00:25:40 indeed it does um you came in right at
00:25:40 --> 00:25:41 the end of this story and if you'd like
00:25:41 --> 00:25:44 to read up on that search for extra
00:25:44 --> 00:25:46 terrestrials the new way of doing it
00:25:47 --> 00:25:49 that has found nothing yet you can do
00:25:49 --> 00:25:52 that at
00:25:52 --> 00:25:54 space.com okay we checked all four
00:25:54 --> 00:25:58 systems and It Go space nets all right
00:25:58 --> 00:26:01 um Fred are you just going to sort of
00:26:01 --> 00:26:03 would why don't we why don't we throw to
00:26:03 --> 00:26:05 you now that you're back and you can
00:26:05 --> 00:26:07 tell us a little bit about your your
00:26:07 --> 00:26:09 trip because you've been away for feels
00:26:09 --> 00:26:12 like four or five years no off no
00:26:12 --> 00:26:14 offense
00:26:14 --> 00:26:20 Johnny that was just one answer from
00:26:20 --> 00:26:23 me okay well I won't to go there but um
00:26:23 --> 00:26:28 the uh yes the trip was uh pretty hard
00:26:28 --> 00:26:29 work
00:26:29 --> 00:26:33 actually because uh we were man and I
00:26:33 --> 00:26:35 were leading one of her tour actually
00:26:35 --> 00:26:37 three of her tours uh three separate
00:26:37 --> 00:26:40 ones which were all back toback uh we
00:26:40 --> 00:26:43 started off in Sweden uh went through
00:26:43 --> 00:26:45 found norn Sweden far Norther than
00:26:45 --> 00:26:48 Norway for the first time I got to uh
00:26:48 --> 00:26:51 the North Cape uh a latitude of 71
00:26:51 --> 00:26:52 degrees it's a farest North have ever
00:26:52 --> 00:26:56 been I think um then we went down uh
00:26:56 --> 00:26:59 back down to Oslo flew across to ruic
00:26:59 --> 00:27:02 and had a really wet and
00:27:02 --> 00:27:06 snowy uh uh 10 days I think it was 11
00:27:06 --> 00:27:08 days in Iceland again going to bits of
00:27:08 --> 00:27:11 Iceland that I'd never seen um the
00:27:11 --> 00:27:13 Northwest in particular some quite
00:27:13 --> 00:27:16 extraordinary places there uh including
00:27:16 --> 00:27:19 um one of the highlights was the place
00:27:19 --> 00:27:23 where astronauts used to go to train in
00:27:23 --> 00:27:25 the Apollo era to train in geology and
00:27:25 --> 00:27:28 there's a little Museum there it's um uh
00:27:28 --> 00:27:32 basically a a small town with uh at the
00:27:32 --> 00:27:36 end of the road almost very uh not not
00:27:36 --> 00:27:38 very much to recommend it under normal
00:27:38 --> 00:27:40 circumstances but this amazing Museum
00:27:40 --> 00:27:43 and they get visits very frequently from
00:27:43 --> 00:27:45 past and present astronauts which is
00:27:45 --> 00:27:48 fabulous it was a great experience uh
00:27:48 --> 00:27:52 and then um we went from reic to Nook in
00:27:52 --> 00:27:55 Greenland where we spent the last 11
00:27:55 --> 00:28:00 Days of our tour Greenland is a totally
00:28:00 --> 00:28:02 fascinating place in every possible way
00:28:02 --> 00:28:05 it is stunning uh physically you have an
00:28:05 --> 00:28:08 ice sheet which we stood right at the
00:28:08 --> 00:28:11 edge of uh a few coastal towns and wait
00:28:11 --> 00:28:14 for this no roads between them not at
00:28:14 --> 00:28:18 all uh way all uh all transfer transport
00:28:19 --> 00:28:21 between towns in Greenland is either by
00:28:21 --> 00:28:25 boat or by air and we did it by air so
00:28:25 --> 00:28:29 yeah some amazing stuff what uh drove
00:28:29 --> 00:28:31 the trip of course were the chance to
00:28:31 --> 00:28:35 see sites like the Northern Lights uh
00:28:35 --> 00:28:39 chance to work on glassiers uh in
00:28:39 --> 00:28:41 Iceland and stand beside active
00:28:42 --> 00:28:45 volcanoes uh and the thing that blew my
00:28:45 --> 00:28:48 mind in Greenland were were the icebergs
00:28:48 --> 00:28:50 just astonishing these you know half
00:28:50 --> 00:28:52 kilometer long lumps of I floating past
00:28:52 --> 00:28:56 our hotel window uh as they carved off
00:28:56 --> 00:29:02 the uh the the um the the ulis ilulissat
00:29:02 --> 00:29:04 was the name of the town where we were
00:29:04 --> 00:29:06 at that time at the end of
00:29:06 --> 00:29:11 the I can't say the word ulat Fjord uh
00:29:11 --> 00:29:12 right at the other end of it is the
00:29:12 --> 00:29:14 Greenland ice sheet and it carves off
00:29:14 --> 00:29:17 all these icebergs um as you see them go
00:29:17 --> 00:29:20 past uh the I guess the other highlight
00:29:20 --> 00:29:22 was uh particularly in Northern Norway
00:29:22 --> 00:29:25 and Sweden and also again in Greenland
00:29:25 --> 00:29:27 uh some fabulous sightings of the Aurora
00:29:27 --> 00:29:30 Boreal we had some great T times with
00:29:30 --> 00:29:34 that wonderful images taken by our whole
00:29:34 --> 00:29:36 group and I got quite a few as well
00:29:37 --> 00:29:40 using sad to say one of these it's just
00:29:40 --> 00:29:43 unbelievable yeah they they do take
00:29:43 --> 00:29:45 amazing pictures I saw a couple that you
00:29:45 --> 00:29:47 posted early in your oh good yeah yeah
00:29:47 --> 00:29:49 forgotten i' done that it's five and a
00:29:49 --> 00:29:51 half weeks and um so it's been a long
00:29:51 --> 00:29:54 time it's been hard work looking after
00:29:54 --> 00:29:56 these wonderful customers that we have
00:29:56 --> 00:29:58 some of which some of whom might might
00:29:58 --> 00:30:01 be listening to this uh because uh a lot
00:30:01 --> 00:30:04 of our clients sort of came to us
00:30:04 --> 00:30:06 through space notes they're they're all
00:30:06 --> 00:30:08 fabulous people uh We've enjoyed their
00:30:08 --> 00:30:11 company throughout um three different
00:30:11 --> 00:30:13 groups one or two people in common
00:30:13 --> 00:30:15 throughout both of them uh and um had a
00:30:15 --> 00:30:19 great time uh the ones who listened
00:30:19 --> 00:30:22 during my absence was telling me how
00:30:22 --> 00:30:25 great they thought jonty is so that was
00:30:25 --> 00:30:27 good news because that's why we asked
00:30:27 --> 00:30:29 him to do the gig yeah the checks in the
00:30:29 --> 00:30:31 past Fred thank
00:30:31 --> 00:30:35 you um yeah so so hard work but very
00:30:36 --> 00:30:38 enjoyable uh and um I have to say man
00:30:38 --> 00:30:41 and I are sort of now recovering and
00:30:41 --> 00:30:43 facing the next big thing which is uh
00:30:43 --> 00:30:45 Dark Sky Conference in Melbourne in
00:30:45 --> 00:30:47 about two weeks time so there's 120
00:30:47 --> 00:30:50 people coming to that and uh we'll be
00:30:50 --> 00:30:52 talking about all that kind of thing
00:30:52 --> 00:30:55 yeah um Judy and I will be in Greenland
00:30:55 --> 00:30:57 uh and Iceland later this year so we
00:30:58 --> 00:30:59 we're really looking forward to it we're
00:30:59 --> 00:31:02 actually doing an iceberg tour yeah out
00:31:02 --> 00:31:04 on I don't know what kind of boat it is
00:31:04 --> 00:31:06 probably one that'll get me wet but um
00:31:06 --> 00:31:07 yeah really looking really looking
00:31:07 --> 00:31:10 forward to that see I think you should
00:31:10 --> 00:31:11 set the next trip or one of the future
00:31:11 --> 00:31:14 trips for that um to coincide with
00:31:14 --> 00:31:16 Geminid maximum as well Geminids are
00:31:16 --> 00:31:18 obviously the highlight of the year for
00:31:18 --> 00:31:21 everything and being in December that's
00:31:21 --> 00:31:24 perfect dark sky time so you could sit
00:31:24 --> 00:31:25 out under the northern lights and see
00:31:25 --> 00:31:28 natural fireworks as well oh there's uh
00:31:28 --> 00:31:30 always a special reason for watching the
00:31:31 --> 00:31:32 Geminids jonty which you might not be
00:31:32 --> 00:31:36 aware of but they Peak on my birthday oh
00:31:36 --> 00:31:39 so it's makes better it's the national
00:31:39 --> 00:31:42 it's a natural birthday present yeah and
00:31:42 --> 00:31:43 they've just got better and better and
00:31:43 --> 00:31:45 better as well I mean I know when I was
00:31:45 --> 00:31:47 watching them in the 90s they were very
00:31:47 --> 00:31:50 very good um and they they're still
00:31:50 --> 00:31:52 getting better on a decadal basis B see
00:31:52 --> 00:31:55 meteor streams gradually talking around
00:31:55 --> 00:31:56 and we've still not seen the best of
00:31:56 --> 00:31:58 them so they're still improving
00:31:58 --> 00:32:00 yeah yeah there you go all right so just
00:32:00 --> 00:32:02 one final comment from me if I may
00:32:02 --> 00:32:06 Andrew um and that is thanks to both of
00:32:06 --> 00:32:10 you for holding the for so well and
00:32:10 --> 00:32:12 especially jonty for jumping into the
00:32:12 --> 00:32:15 hot seat it was it's been Absol
00:32:15 --> 00:32:16 absolutely terrific
00:32:16 --> 00:32:19 you you know being being our favorite
00:32:19 --> 00:32:22 Depp and standby uh and um we look
00:32:22 --> 00:32:26 forward to welcoming you back in the
00:32:26 --> 00:32:28 always happy to I'm just glad had a good
00:32:28 --> 00:32:30 break that sounds fun it was it's it's
00:32:31 --> 00:32:32 been great it's been I'll show you how
00:32:32 --> 00:32:35 I've had to cope with jonty oh all right
00:32:35 --> 00:32:39 okay well you a downhill SL nice Merlo
00:32:39 --> 00:32:42 when it's 7 o'clock in the morning no um
00:32:42 --> 00:32:45 hey he's been terrific he really has
00:32:45 --> 00:32:47 despite the bad poetry I throw I throw
00:32:47 --> 00:32:51 at him from time to time
00:32:51 --> 00:32:53 yes you gonna stick around or you got to
00:32:53 --> 00:32:56 go um if if I may I'll stick around but
00:32:56 --> 00:32:58 it's jonty's gig I'm just going to sit
00:32:58 --> 00:33:00 in the background and enjoy it if that's
00:33:00 --> 00:33:02 all right yeah all right um well we're
00:33:02 --> 00:33:04 going to talk now about jonty's favorite
00:33:04 --> 00:33:07 punching bag and that is SpaceX what's
00:33:07 --> 00:33:10 what's the latest with them Jo yeah I I
00:33:10 --> 00:33:12 always and I know I say this quite often
00:33:12 --> 00:33:14 I try and te F even handed side of
00:33:14 --> 00:33:16 things when I talk about Elon Musk and
00:33:16 --> 00:33:17 SpaceX and what they do because I think
00:33:17 --> 00:33:20 it's like all good characters in books
00:33:20 --> 00:33:22 the best characters are not evil or good
00:33:22 --> 00:33:23 but they're somewhere in between and
00:33:23 --> 00:33:25 they do good things and bad things but
00:33:25 --> 00:33:27 this week I think we're talking more
00:33:27 --> 00:33:29 about the things that haven't quite
00:33:29 --> 00:33:32 worked right so earlier on I think
00:33:32 --> 00:33:34 possibly the first episode I was
00:33:34 --> 00:33:37 substituting in we talked about the
00:33:37 --> 00:33:39 Starship launch that went wrong and
00:33:39 --> 00:33:41 everything went boom and fragments fell
00:33:41 --> 00:33:44 over the Turks and Kos Islands that's
00:33:44 --> 00:33:47 and interestingly there is a link to a
00:33:47 --> 00:33:48 pretty lengthy and quite startling
00:33:48 --> 00:33:51 article on CNN which we might be able to
00:33:51 --> 00:33:53 put out with a podcasts from the 30th of
00:33:53 --> 00:33:55 January I'd not really followed up on it
00:33:55 --> 00:33:58 but people in the TS and kcos were
00:33:58 --> 00:34:00 complaining about the lack of Engagement
00:34:00 --> 00:34:01 from SpaceX the fact that they're
00:34:01 --> 00:34:03 finding debris all over the place a car
00:34:03 --> 00:34:05 was damaged by some of it and loads of
00:34:06 --> 00:34:07 it floating and washing up on the
00:34:07 --> 00:34:09 beaches and nobody's made any efforts to
00:34:09 --> 00:34:11 contact them or collect any or do the
00:34:11 --> 00:34:14 cleanup now that may have changed sparex
00:34:14 --> 00:34:16 has historically been reasonably good at
00:34:16 --> 00:34:19 cleaning up its mess but I was quite s
00:34:19 --> 00:34:22 reading that article through at the
00:34:22 --> 00:34:25 level to which there was a bit of upset
00:34:25 --> 00:34:27 there and the the photographs of all
00:34:27 --> 00:34:29 this de rewashing up on the beaches was
00:34:29 --> 00:34:31 quite startling when in the days after
00:34:31 --> 00:34:32 that it was just said oh it fell in the
00:34:33 --> 00:34:35 Atlantic it went over the T and Kos but
00:34:35 --> 00:34:37 it was out in open otion so that was
00:34:37 --> 00:34:39 quite sobering but I only came across
00:34:39 --> 00:34:41 that because see there was another
00:34:41 --> 00:34:43 high-profile SpaceX things didn't work
00:34:43 --> 00:34:46 as expected um that's made a lot of the
00:34:46 --> 00:34:47 news over the last week particularly on
00:34:47 --> 00:34:51 the BBC website but also on space.com
00:34:51 --> 00:34:54 fabulous images again all over the app
00:34:54 --> 00:34:56 formally known as Twitter and all over
00:34:56 --> 00:34:58 blue sky and things like
00:34:58 --> 00:35:01 face because one of spacex's Falcon 9
00:35:01 --> 00:35:05 Rockets the upper stages of those are
00:35:05 --> 00:35:07 not reusable these are the bits that go
00:35:07 --> 00:35:08 so high they can't just bring them back
00:35:08 --> 00:35:12 and land them and typically they bring
00:35:12 --> 00:35:13 them back in a controlled re-entry so
00:35:13 --> 00:35:15 they say this thing is going to come
00:35:15 --> 00:35:17 back to wor but we're going to force it
00:35:17 --> 00:35:19 to deit at a time we want it to in a
00:35:19 --> 00:35:20 place where it's going to be far from
00:35:21 --> 00:35:24 Land keeping it as safe as possible but
00:35:24 --> 00:35:26 this one in particular failed to come
00:35:26 --> 00:35:28 back in at the start of February and had
00:35:28 --> 00:35:30 gone out of control so everybody knew it
00:35:30 --> 00:35:32 was going to come back in at some point
00:35:32 --> 00:35:35 at some time in some place but nobody
00:35:35 --> 00:35:37 was really show why so it's like your
00:35:37 --> 00:35:39 typical failed attempt at being menacing
00:35:39 --> 00:35:41 you know at some time at some place in
00:35:41 --> 00:35:43 the indeterminate Future something bad
00:35:43 --> 00:35:46 might possibly happen maybe and then it
00:35:46 --> 00:35:49 did so there's all this footage from
00:35:49 --> 00:35:50 northern Europe starting from kind of
00:35:50 --> 00:35:54 Lincolnshire in the UK of yet another
00:35:54 --> 00:35:56 one of these space deis re-entry events
00:35:56 --> 00:35:58 spectacular incredible scenes that
00:35:58 --> 00:36:00 people have shot but the Deb actually
00:36:00 --> 00:36:02 made it to the ground in Fairly
00:36:02 --> 00:36:04 substantial chunks over Poland and
00:36:04 --> 00:36:06 potentially also over the Ukraine now
00:36:06 --> 00:36:08 I've not actually seen any reports
00:36:08 --> 00:36:10 showing DeBry on the ground in the
00:36:10 --> 00:36:12 Ukraine because obviously it's hard to
00:36:12 --> 00:36:13 get images out given all the other
00:36:13 --> 00:36:15 problems they're facing at the minute
00:36:15 --> 00:36:16 although to be fair this is the last
00:36:16 --> 00:36:18 thing that they need is additional bits
00:36:19 --> 00:36:21 of metal dropping on their country but
00:36:21 --> 00:36:24 there are lots of bits that fell over
00:36:24 --> 00:36:27 Poland including one bit that was found
00:36:27 --> 00:36:29 that is one half MERS by 1 meter that
00:36:29 --> 00:36:32 damaged some lights and stuff around a
00:36:32 --> 00:36:34 warehouse so this isn't just a bit of
00:36:34 --> 00:36:36 Deb burning a pal musle in the
00:36:36 --> 00:36:38 atmosphere this again is stuff making it
00:36:38 --> 00:36:40 to the ground intact which is where
00:36:40 --> 00:36:42 people get worried and it ties in quite
00:36:42 --> 00:36:43 nicely with some of the things that were
00:36:43 --> 00:36:45 being reported back with the Starship
00:36:45 --> 00:36:47 launch some statistic that was worked
00:36:48 --> 00:36:49 out based on the frequency things were
00:36:49 --> 00:36:52 coming back in in 2023 and our use of
00:36:52 --> 00:36:55 airspace saying that there was a 26%
00:36:55 --> 00:36:57 chance in any given year of a major
00:36:57 --> 00:37:00 space debr re-entry event overpopulated
00:37:00 --> 00:37:02 highly used airspace and that's exactly
00:37:02 --> 00:37:04 what this was the report a few years ago
00:37:04 --> 00:37:06 that said the likelihood of somebody
00:37:06 --> 00:37:08 dying from space zey in the next decade
00:37:08 --> 00:37:10 could be as high as one in 10 and this
00:37:10 --> 00:37:12 is a sobering reminder of that because
00:37:12 --> 00:37:13 the end of the day if a bit of a
00:37:13 --> 00:37:16 SpaceX rocket that's one meter by one
00:37:16 --> 00:37:19 and a half meter lands on your head
00:37:19 --> 00:37:20 that's going to put a sizable dent in
00:37:20 --> 00:37:23 your day and there is fabulous footage
00:37:23 --> 00:37:26 about this and I think the thing that
00:37:26 --> 00:37:28 offsets this is that space are trying to
00:37:28 --> 00:37:30 do things right to give them the credit
00:37:30 --> 00:37:32 they're bringing things back in as much
00:37:32 --> 00:37:33 as they can in a controlled fashion we
00:37:33 --> 00:37:35 talked about this with the stying sights
00:37:35 --> 00:37:37 the other week and on the whole they're
00:37:37 --> 00:37:39 trying to do that right now there are
00:37:39 --> 00:37:41 other concerns things like the pollution
00:37:41 --> 00:37:44 side of it but this is a big reminder
00:37:44 --> 00:37:47 that space is difficult things go wrong
00:37:47 --> 00:37:49 and when we continue to put this many
00:37:49 --> 00:37:51 Rockets up there from time to time some
00:37:51 --> 00:37:52 of them will come back in in an
00:37:52 --> 00:37:54 uncontrolled fashion and this is the
00:37:54 --> 00:37:56 second time just in this calendar year
00:37:56 --> 00:37:58 where sign significant trunks of Deb
00:37:58 --> 00:38:01 have fallen over populated airspace and
00:38:01 --> 00:38:05 bits have either landed or washed up on
00:38:05 --> 00:38:06 places where people live you know
00:38:06 --> 00:38:08 somebody's car was damaged in one event
00:38:08 --> 00:38:11 somebody's Warehouse damaged in another
00:38:11 --> 00:38:13 it's not all plan sailing I guess is a
00:38:13 --> 00:38:15 take on from this and there's a lot of
00:38:15 --> 00:38:17 fabulous coverage of it all over if you
00:38:17 --> 00:38:19 do a bit of browsing around oh yeah and
00:38:19 --> 00:38:21 some of the pictures are incredible in
00:38:21 --> 00:38:23 the footage um this video footage and
00:38:23 --> 00:38:28 and photographic um material that shows
00:38:28 --> 00:38:30 and and over a wide area over a very
00:38:30 --> 00:38:32 wide area from England right through to
00:38:32 --> 00:38:35 Poland these images have been published
00:38:35 --> 00:38:37 and um yeah I mean they're spectacular
00:38:37 --> 00:38:39 to look at but the fact that big chunks
00:38:39 --> 00:38:41 are hitting the ground and doing damage
00:38:41 --> 00:38:43 that is scary stuff and Fred you and I
00:38:43 --> 00:38:46 have talked about in the past not only
00:38:46 --> 00:38:48 the the threat or the Potential Threat
00:38:48 --> 00:38:50 to Life as a consequence of this uh
00:38:50 --> 00:38:54 human being killed or injured under
00:38:54 --> 00:38:57 these circumstances but also what the
00:38:57 --> 00:39:00 Imp might be in the insurance
00:39:00 --> 00:39:03 industry because uh people may have to
00:39:03 --> 00:39:05 insure against this kind of thing we've
00:39:05 --> 00:39:09 got um sorry jonty we've got uh starlink
00:39:09 --> 00:39:13 8 sorry Starship 8 coming up this week
00:39:13 --> 00:39:16 is that right the launch of the next uh
00:39:16 --> 00:39:18 yeah that that's come around quicker
00:39:18 --> 00:39:21 than anticipated and it's because
00:39:21 --> 00:39:23 spaceex are very transparent in their
00:39:23 --> 00:39:25 efforts to understand what went wrong so
00:39:25 --> 00:39:27 they've been able to escalate the
00:39:27 --> 00:39:30 approvals through um may or may not have
00:39:30 --> 00:39:32 anything also to do with um the
00:39:32 --> 00:39:35 prominence of their owner at the minute
00:39:35 --> 00:39:38 and his strong connections but yeah I'm
00:39:38 --> 00:39:39 surprised that they're launching again
00:39:39 --> 00:39:42 so quickly after that went wrong but
00:39:42 --> 00:39:45 they are very enthusiastic on testing
00:39:45 --> 00:39:48 things by destru they are quite rightly
00:39:48 --> 00:39:50 of the opinion that when things go wrong
00:39:50 --> 00:39:51 that's when you learn the most and
00:39:51 --> 00:39:52 that's when you can fix things and
00:39:52 --> 00:39:54 improve them and they've done a fabulous
00:39:54 --> 00:39:55 job that's how their whole business
00:39:56 --> 00:39:58 model has worked all the way through but
00:39:58 --> 00:40:00 it still feels a little bit too
00:40:00 --> 00:40:02 soon well they're talking about uh the
00:40:03 --> 00:40:06 28th of February actually yes the next
00:40:06 --> 00:40:09 uh Mega rocket launch so and most of
00:40:09 --> 00:40:10 these things are streamed live of course
00:40:10 --> 00:40:12 aren't they so you will be able to watch
00:40:12 --> 00:40:14 along with that if you're interested in
00:40:14 --> 00:40:15 that kind of thing and I think that's
00:40:15 --> 00:40:16 another really positive that's come out
00:40:16 --> 00:40:19 of this when I was a kid launchers were
00:40:19 --> 00:40:21 not as common but you only ever heard
00:40:21 --> 00:40:22 about them on the news when something
00:40:22 --> 00:40:24 went wrong and I remember as a kid
00:40:24 --> 00:40:26 Challenger I remember the other shuttle
00:40:27 --> 00:40:29 disaster stud in my PhD but other than
00:40:29 --> 00:40:31 that you couldn't watch it it's not like
00:40:31 --> 00:40:32 it was live and
00:40:33 --> 00:40:36 televised and yet now you can tune in
00:40:36 --> 00:40:37 you can watch these things that they
00:40:37 --> 00:40:40 happen both NASA launches but SpaceX
00:40:40 --> 00:40:42 launches it's fabulous it's a great time
00:40:42 --> 00:40:45 to be alive yeah oh it's reached a point
00:40:45 --> 00:40:47 where people go to watch these things
00:40:47 --> 00:40:49 like they do yeah um go to watch Nascar
00:40:49 --> 00:40:53 races and you only go for the crash so
00:40:53 --> 00:40:55 that's kind of that's kind of where it's
00:40:56 --> 00:40:59 it's headed sort of um and and uh SpaceX
00:40:59 --> 00:41:02 hasn't disappointed very they they've
00:41:02 --> 00:41:06 had um some several successful failures
00:41:06 --> 00:41:09 so um yes rapid unscheduled uh
00:41:09 --> 00:41:11 disassemblies is that what unscheduled
00:41:11 --> 00:41:14 disassembly is another one yes um anyway
00:41:14 --> 00:41:18 Friday apparently um the Starship eight
00:41:18 --> 00:41:20 launch is scheduled for so we'll see how
00:41:20 --> 00:41:23 that pans out be interesting to see if
00:41:23 --> 00:41:25 anybody flying to Johannesburg with
00:41:25 --> 00:41:26 Quantus gets theed with that one cuz
00:41:27 --> 00:41:28 that was another problem with the
00:41:28 --> 00:41:31 previous one because they are where they
00:41:31 --> 00:41:32 look to bring in the upper stage of
00:41:32 --> 00:41:35 Starship if it goes well is directly on
00:41:35 --> 00:41:36 the flight path from Sydney to
00:41:36 --> 00:41:39 Johannesburg and so Quant flights kept
00:41:39 --> 00:41:40 being delayed at short notice when
00:41:40 --> 00:41:42 SpaceX said we're going to launch
00:41:42 --> 00:41:43 actually no we're not oh no we're going
00:41:43 --> 00:41:45 to launch now no we're not because you
00:41:45 --> 00:41:47 can't fly through the airspace where a
00:41:47 --> 00:41:48 rocket might hit your plane even though
00:41:48 --> 00:41:52 the odds are vanishingly small