00:00:00 --> 00:00:03 Welcome to Astronomy [music] Daily, your
00:00:03 --> 00:00:05 source for the latest space and
00:00:05 --> 00:00:07 astronomy news. I'm Anna.
00:00:07 --> 00:00:09 >> And I'm Avery. Thanks for joining us on
00:00:09 --> 00:00:11 this Thursday, February 29th, [music]
00:00:11 --> 00:00:14 2026. We've got a fascinating lineup
00:00:14 --> 00:00:16 today, covering everything from
00:00:16 --> 00:00:18 Mercury's surprising geological activity
00:00:18 --> 00:00:20 to a possible [music] asteroid impact on
00:00:20 --> 00:00:21 the moon.
00:00:21 --> 00:00:24 >> That's right. We're going to explore
00:00:24 --> 00:00:26 bright streaks on Mercury that suggest
00:00:26 --> 00:00:29 [music] our smallest planet is still
00:00:29 --> 00:00:32 geologically active. Check in on NASA's
00:00:32 --> 00:00:34 [music] test satellite after a command
00:00:34 --> 00:00:36 error temporarily sidelined it. And
00:00:36 --> 00:00:39 discuss the discovery of an intriguing
00:00:39 --> 00:00:41 Earthlike exoplanet that's much [music]
00:00:41 --> 00:00:43 colder than you might expect. Plus,
00:00:43 --> 00:00:45 we'll bring you updates on NASA and
00:00:45 --> 00:00:48 SpaceX moving up the Crew 12 launch to
00:00:48 --> 00:00:49 help out the skeleton crew [music]
00:00:49 --> 00:00:50 currently on the International Space
00:00:50 --> 00:00:52 Station. Then we'll dive into the wild
00:00:52 --> 00:00:55 world of runaway black holes tearing
00:00:55 --> 00:00:57 through space and wrap up with what
00:00:57 --> 00:00:59 could be a once-in-a-lifetime [music]
00:00:59 --> 00:01:01 scientific opportunity if an asteroid
00:01:01 --> 00:01:03 hits the moon in 2032.
00:01:03 --> 00:01:05 >> It's quite a ride today. [music] Let's
00:01:06 --> 00:01:08 get started with some surprising news
00:01:08 --> 00:01:10 from the innermost planet in our solar
00:01:10 --> 00:01:11 system.
00:01:11 --> 00:01:14 >> Mercury has long been viewed as a small
00:01:14 --> 00:01:16 geologically dead world, but new
00:01:16 --> 00:01:18 research is challenging that assumption
00:01:18 --> 00:01:21 in a big way. A team led by researchers
00:01:21 --> 00:01:23 at the University of Burn has uncovered
00:01:23 --> 00:01:25 hundreds of bright linear streaks on
00:01:26 --> 00:01:28 crater slopes that point to ongoing
00:01:28 --> 00:01:30 volcanic activity and volatile loss from
00:01:30 --> 00:01:32 Mercury's interior.
00:01:32 --> 00:01:35 >> This is really fascinating work, Avery.
00:01:35 --> 00:01:37 The team applied deep learning
00:01:37 --> 00:01:40 techniques to analyze about 100
00:01:40 --> 00:01:43 highresolution images taken by NASA's
00:01:43 --> 00:01:45 Messenger spacecraft during its orbital
00:01:45 --> 00:01:49 mission from 2011 to 2015. Using this
00:01:49 --> 00:01:51 automated approach, they mapped the
00:01:51 --> 00:01:54 global distribution of roughly 400
00:01:54 --> 00:01:56 bright streaks that had previously
00:01:56 --> 00:01:59 escaped comprehensive cataloging.
00:01:59 --> 00:02:01 >> And what they found was pretty telling.
00:02:01 --> 00:02:03 These features, known as slope lineier,
00:02:03 --> 00:02:05 occur preferentially on sun-facing
00:02:06 --> 00:02:08 slopes inside relatively young impact
00:02:08 --> 00:02:10 craters that cut through thick volcanic
00:02:10 --> 00:02:12 deposits. The concentration of streaks
00:02:12 --> 00:02:15 in these thermally stressed environments
00:02:15 --> 00:02:17 indicates that solar heating is an
00:02:17 --> 00:02:19 important trigger for volatile escape
00:02:19 --> 00:02:21 from near surface layers. Much of these
00:02:22 --> 00:02:24 streaks originate in small bright
00:02:24 --> 00:02:27 depressions called hollows that dot
00:02:27 --> 00:02:29 crater floors and walls. These hollows
00:02:29 --> 00:02:31 have long been interpreted as products
00:02:31 --> 00:02:33 of volatile loss and their close
00:02:34 --> 00:02:36 association with the lineier supports
00:02:36 --> 00:02:39 the view that both structures form when
00:02:39 --> 00:02:41 volatile components like sulfur or other
00:02:41 --> 00:02:43 light elements escape from the
00:02:43 --> 00:02:45 subsurface.
00:02:45 --> 00:02:47 >> According to the research team, fracture
00:02:47 --> 00:02:49 networks created by the original impact
00:02:49 --> 00:02:51 events likely provide pathways that
00:02:51 --> 00:02:53 allow volatile rich material from deeper
00:02:53 --> 00:02:56 levels to reach the surface. As solar
00:02:56 --> 00:02:58 radiation warms these exposed zones,
00:02:58 --> 00:03:01 volatiles can escape into space, driving
00:03:01 --> 00:03:03 the development or modification of the
00:03:03 --> 00:03:06 bright streaks down slope. What's
00:03:06 --> 00:03:08 particularly exciting is the timing.
00:03:08 --> 00:03:11 This research arrives just as the joint
00:03:11 --> 00:03:14 ESA and JAXA Becky Columbbo mission is
00:03:14 --> 00:03:16 on route to Mercury. The mission carries
00:03:16 --> 00:03:19 an advanced payload that includes
00:03:19 --> 00:03:21 several key contributions from the
00:03:21 --> 00:03:22 University of Burn.
00:03:22 --> 00:03:25 >> Absolutely. The Becky Columbbo laser
00:03:25 --> 00:03:27 altimeter or Bella was designed and
00:03:27 --> 00:03:30 built in part at the University of Burn.
00:03:30 --> 00:03:32 It will use laser pulses from an orbit
00:03:32 --> 00:03:35 roughly a thousand km above the surface
00:03:35 --> 00:03:38 to measure elevations with about 10 cm
00:03:38 --> 00:03:40 precision, enabling a detailed
00:03:40 --> 00:03:42 reconstruction of Mercury's topography.
00:03:42 --> 00:03:45 The burn team also contributed the ion
00:03:45 --> 00:03:48 optical system for Stroio, a NASA mass
00:03:48 --> 00:03:51 spectrometer on Bey Columbo that will
00:03:51 --> 00:03:53 measure the composition of Mercury's
00:03:53 --> 00:03:56 extremely thin atmosphere, connecting
00:03:56 --> 00:03:58 present-day volatile escape at the
00:03:58 --> 00:04:01 surface to the surrounding exosphere.
00:04:01 --> 00:04:02 The research team plans to use the
00:04:02 --> 00:04:05 current inventory of slope streaks as a
00:04:05 --> 00:04:07 baseline for future comparisons once
00:04:07 --> 00:04:10 Beepy Columbbo begins returning data. By
00:04:10 --> 00:04:12 imaging key regions again, they aim to
00:04:12 --> 00:04:14 determine whether new streaks have
00:04:14 --> 00:04:16 formed or existing ones have changed
00:04:16 --> 00:04:19 since the messenger era. Any such
00:04:19 --> 00:04:21 changes would provide strong evidence
00:04:21 --> 00:04:23 that volatiled driven processes are
00:04:23 --> 00:04:25 still reshaping Mercury's surface on
00:04:25 --> 00:04:27 human [snorts] time scales.
00:04:27 --> 00:04:29 >> It's a great reminder that even our
00:04:29 --> 00:04:31 smallest, closest planetary neighbor
00:04:32 --> 00:04:34 still has secrets to reveal. Mercury is
00:04:34 --> 00:04:36 far more dynamic than we thought.
00:04:36 --> 00:04:38 Shifting from Mercury to our planet
00:04:38 --> 00:04:40 hunting efforts, NASA's Transiting
00:04:40 --> 00:04:43 Exoplanet Survey Satellite, or TESS,
00:04:43 --> 00:04:45 recently had a bit of a scare when a
00:04:45 --> 00:04:47 command error temporarily knocked it
00:04:47 --> 00:04:49 offline. Right, the spacecraft was
00:04:50 --> 00:04:51 forced into safe mode after an
00:04:52 --> 00:04:53 unexpected command error caused its
00:04:53 --> 00:04:56 solar panels to misalign with the sun.
00:04:56 --> 00:04:58 This misalignment had serious
00:04:58 --> 00:04:59 consequences because the panels were
00:05:00 --> 00:05:02 unable to charge Tessa's batteries,
00:05:02 --> 00:05:03 leading to a low power condition that
00:05:04 --> 00:05:05 triggered the automatic transition to
00:05:05 --> 00:05:07 safe mode. In safe mode, all
00:05:08 --> 00:05:10 non-essential systems are turned off to
00:05:10 --> 00:05:11 conserve power, and the spacecraft
00:05:12 --> 00:05:13 awaits further instructions from ground
00:05:14 --> 00:05:16 controllers. NASA engineers quickly work
00:05:16 --> 00:05:18 to resolve the issue. And fortunately,
00:05:18 --> 00:05:21 TESS safe mode performed as intended,
00:05:21 --> 00:05:23 protecting the spacecraft from permanent
00:05:23 --> 00:05:25 damage. This incident is actually
00:05:25 --> 00:05:28 reminiscent of past missing failures.
00:05:28 --> 00:05:31 Remember Viking 1 back in 1982? A faulty
00:05:31 --> 00:05:34 command caused the loss of communication
00:05:34 --> 00:05:36 and there was that catastrophic series
00:05:36 --> 00:05:38 of events that nearly destroyed the SOHO
00:05:38 --> 00:05:41 probe in 1998. But unlike those cases,
00:05:42 --> 00:05:44 TESS was fortunate to have safeguards in
00:05:44 --> 00:05:45 place.
00:05:45 --> 00:05:47 >> Exactly. The spacecraft's automatic safe
00:05:47 --> 00:05:49 mode kicked in when the power situation
00:05:49 --> 00:05:51 became critical. The safe mode is
00:05:52 --> 00:05:53 designed to preserve the spacecraft's
00:05:53 --> 00:05:56 core functions such as attitude control
00:05:56 --> 00:05:58 and ensure it can be reactivated once
00:05:58 --> 00:06:00 engineers identify and address the
00:06:00 --> 00:06:02 issue. According to NASA, the mission
00:06:02 --> 00:06:04 team is now reviewing and updating
00:06:04 --> 00:06:06 procedures to prevent this command error
00:06:06 --> 00:06:08 from happening in the future. It's a
00:06:08 --> 00:06:10 good reminder that even with advanced
00:06:10 --> 00:06:12 technology, human error remains a
00:06:12 --> 00:06:14 significant challenge in space
00:06:14 --> 00:06:15 operations.
00:06:15 --> 00:06:18 >> Absolutely. While Tessa's recovery was
00:06:18 --> 00:06:20 successful and demonstrates how far
00:06:20 --> 00:06:22 space mission technology has come, this
00:06:22 --> 00:06:24 incident emphasizes the need for
00:06:24 --> 00:06:26 continued vigilance in mission planning.
00:06:26 --> 00:06:29 The risk of human error is always there
00:06:29 --> 00:06:31 and the consequences can be costly in
00:06:31 --> 00:06:33 terms of both time and resources.
00:06:33 --> 00:06:35 >> The good news is that TESS is back
00:06:35 --> 00:06:37 online and continuing its important work
00:06:38 --> 00:06:40 of hunting for exoplanets, which brings
00:06:40 --> 00:06:42 us nicely to our next story about a
00:06:42 --> 00:06:45 newly discovered Earthlike world.
00:06:45 --> 00:06:47 Speaking of exoplanets, astronomers have
00:06:47 --> 00:06:49 just discovered what might be one of the
00:06:49 --> 00:06:51 closest things we have to Earth's twin,
00:06:52 --> 00:06:54 though it's considerably colder than our
00:06:54 --> 00:06:56 home planet. The exoplanet is called
00:06:56 --> 00:07:00 HD137010b,
00:07:00 --> 00:07:03 and it's located 146 lighty years away.
00:07:03 --> 00:07:05 It's slightly larger than Earth and
00:07:05 --> 00:07:07 orbits a star that resembles our sun.
00:07:07 --> 00:07:09 However, despite its similarities to
00:07:09 --> 00:07:11 Earth in terms of size and orbital
00:07:11 --> 00:07:14 period, its surface could be far colder
00:07:14 --> 00:07:16 than even Mars, potentially reaching a
00:07:16 --> 00:07:22 frigid -90° F or -68° C.
00:07:22 --> 00:07:24 >> This discovery was published in the
00:07:24 --> 00:07:26 astrophysical journal Letters and was
00:07:26 --> 00:07:29 made by an international team led by
00:07:29 --> 00:07:31 Alexander Venner. The search for
00:07:31 --> 00:07:34 Earthlike exoplanets has been a central
00:07:34 --> 00:07:37 focus of astronomical research for over
00:07:37 --> 00:07:40 three decades now. Dr. Hang, a key
00:07:40 --> 00:07:41 member of the research team, explained
00:07:41 --> 00:07:43 it well when he said, "Since the
00:07:43 --> 00:07:45 discovery of the first exoplanet 30
00:07:45 --> 00:07:47 years ago, we've always tried to find
00:07:48 --> 00:07:51 Earth's Trin. HD137010b
00:07:51 --> 00:07:53 could bring us closer to that goal,
00:07:53 --> 00:07:56 although it's not an exact match. The
00:07:56 --> 00:07:58 planet is positioned in what astronomers
00:07:58 --> 00:08:00 call the habitable zone of its star,
00:08:00 --> 00:08:02 which is the area where water could
00:08:02 --> 00:08:04 potentially exist in liquid form, which
00:08:04 --> 00:08:06 is crucial for life as we know it.
00:08:06 --> 00:08:09 However, there's a major obstacle.
00:08:09 --> 00:08:14 >> Right? The star HD137010b
00:08:14 --> 00:08:16 orbits is cooler and dimmer than our
00:08:16 --> 00:08:19 sun, meaning the planet receives only a
00:08:19 --> 00:08:22 fraction of the energy Earth does. This
00:08:22 --> 00:08:24 could result in surface temperatures as
00:08:24 --> 00:08:28 low as -90° F, making it one of the
00:08:28 --> 00:08:30 coldest exoplanets discovered in recent
00:08:30 --> 00:08:33 years. But scientists remain hopeful.
00:08:34 --> 00:08:35 Dr. Venner pointed out that while the
00:08:35 --> 00:08:38 planet's surface might be frozen, it
00:08:38 --> 00:08:39 could still fall within the broader
00:08:39 --> 00:08:42 optimistic habitable zone of its star.
00:08:42 --> 00:08:44 With the right atmospheric conditions,
00:08:44 --> 00:08:47 HD137010b
00:08:47 --> 00:08:49 might not be as inhospitable as its
00:08:49 --> 00:08:51 temperature suggests. One of the
00:08:52 --> 00:08:53 challenges of studying this planet is
00:08:54 --> 00:08:56 its orbital distance from its star,
00:08:56 --> 00:08:58 which is similar to Earth's, but much
00:08:58 --> 00:09:00 farther than the typical exoplanets that
00:09:00 --> 00:09:03 are easier to observe. Transits, when
00:09:03 --> 00:09:05 the planet crosses in front of its star,
00:09:05 --> 00:09:08 happen less frequently, making it harder
00:09:08 --> 00:09:10 to confirm the planet's existence.
00:09:10 --> 00:09:12 >> The discovery was made from a single
00:09:12 --> 00:09:15 transit captured by NASA's Kepler Space
00:09:15 --> 00:09:17 Telescope. Further confirmation of the
00:09:17 --> 00:09:19 planet's existence and detailed analysis
00:09:19 --> 00:09:22 of its mass and atmosphere will require
00:09:22 --> 00:09:24 more data, which might not be possible
00:09:24 --> 00:09:26 until the next generation of telescopes
00:09:26 --> 00:09:28 become operational.
00:09:28 --> 00:09:30 >> It's an exciting discovery that adds to
00:09:30 --> 00:09:32 our understanding of the types of
00:09:32 --> 00:09:33 environments where life could
00:09:33 --> 00:09:36 potentially exist beyond our solar
00:09:36 --> 00:09:41 system. Even if HD137010B
00:09:41 --> 00:09:43 is too cold for life as we know it, it
00:09:43 --> 00:09:45 teaches us valuable lessons about
00:09:45 --> 00:09:47 planetary habitability.
00:09:47 --> 00:09:49 >> Now, let's turn our attention back to
00:09:49 --> 00:09:52 Earth orbit and the International Space
00:09:52 --> 00:09:54 Station. NASA has announced an earlier
00:09:54 --> 00:09:56 than expected target date to launch the
00:09:56 --> 00:09:59 next astronauts to the ISS.
00:09:59 --> 00:10:01 >> That's right. The agency is now
00:10:01 --> 00:10:04 targeting February 11th for liftoff of
00:10:04 --> 00:10:07 Space X Crew 12 mission, which will fly
00:10:07 --> 00:10:09 four astronauts to join the skeleton
00:10:09 --> 00:10:11 crew presently operating the orbital
00:10:11 --> 00:10:14 laboratory. That's 4 days earlier than
00:10:14 --> 00:10:16 originally planned.
00:10:16 --> 00:10:18 >> Just to give everyone context, currently
00:10:18 --> 00:10:20 only three crew members are covering the
00:10:20 --> 00:10:22 maintenance and science investigations
00:10:22 --> 00:10:25 aboard the ISS. They were left behind on
00:10:25 --> 00:10:27 January 14th by the early departure of
00:10:27 --> 00:10:30 crew 11 on the station's first ever
00:10:30 --> 00:10:33 medical evacuation. The crew 12
00:10:33 --> 00:10:35 astronauts were already in line to take
00:10:35 --> 00:10:38 the crew 11's quartet's place, but they
00:10:38 --> 00:10:40 had originally been scheduled to overlap
00:10:40 --> 00:10:43 with them before their return to Earth.
00:10:43 --> 00:10:45 SpaceX and NASA had originally targeted
00:10:45 --> 00:10:48 February 15th for Crew 12's launch, but
00:10:48 --> 00:10:50 managed to get the mission's Crew Dragon
00:10:50 --> 00:10:53 spacecraft and Falcon 9 rocket ready
00:10:53 --> 00:10:54 ahead of schedule.
00:10:54 --> 00:10:57 >> The Crew 12 team includes NASA
00:10:57 --> 00:10:59 astronauts Jessica Mir, who's the
00:10:59 --> 00:11:01 mission commander, and Jack Hathaway as
00:11:02 --> 00:11:04 pilot. The mission specialists are
00:11:04 --> 00:11:07 Sophie Adinot of the European Space
00:11:07 --> 00:11:10 Agency, and Ross Cosmos cosminaut Andre
00:11:10 --> 00:11:13 Fedyv. Interestingly, Fedyav was a
00:11:13 --> 00:11:15 relatively late replacement for
00:11:15 --> 00:11:17 cosminaut Alleg Ardmiv, who was pulled
00:11:18 --> 00:11:20 off crew 12 in early December, possibly
00:11:20 --> 00:11:23 for violating US national security
00:11:23 --> 00:11:26 regulations. This quartet will fly the
00:11:26 --> 00:11:28 Crew Dragon capsule named Grace to the
00:11:28 --> 00:11:31 ISS for a longer than normal assignment
00:11:31 --> 00:11:33 lasting 9 months instead of the typical
00:11:33 --> 00:11:35 6 months. It'll be the second space
00:11:35 --> 00:11:38 flight for both Mayor and Fedyav, while
00:11:38 --> 00:11:41 Hathaway and Adeno are both spaceflight
00:11:41 --> 00:11:42 rookies headed to orbit for the first
00:11:42 --> 00:11:45 time. The launch window opens on
00:11:45 --> 00:11:48 February 11th at 6:00 a.m. Eastern time
00:11:48 --> 00:11:50 from launch complex 40 at Cape Canaveral
00:11:50 --> 00:11:53 Space Force Station in Florida. If they
00:11:53 --> 00:11:55 don't manage to launch that day, there
00:11:55 --> 00:11:57 are backup opportunities on February
00:11:57 --> 00:12:00 12th and 13th. The crew 12 astronauts
00:12:00 --> 00:12:02 will join NASA Chris Williams and
00:12:02 --> 00:12:05 cosminauts Sergey Kuds Verskovv and
00:12:05 --> 00:12:08 Serge Mikayv as part of ISS expedition
00:12:08 --> 00:12:11 74 which will eventually transition to
00:12:11 --> 00:12:14 expedition 75 before the end of crew
00:12:14 --> 00:12:16 12's rotation. It's great to see the
00:12:16 --> 00:12:18 relief crew heading up sooner to help
00:12:18 --> 00:12:20 out the skeleton crew currently managing
00:12:20 --> 00:12:21 the station.
00:12:22 --> 00:12:24 >> Now for something truly mindbending.
00:12:24 --> 00:12:27 Astronomers have confirmed the first
00:12:27 --> 00:12:29 runaway super massive black hole, and
00:12:29 --> 00:12:32 it's leaving quite a trail behind it.
00:12:32 --> 00:12:35 >> This is wild stuff, Anna. The black hole
00:12:35 --> 00:12:37 was identified by a 200 light-year
00:12:37 --> 00:12:40 tail and a supersonic bow shock in the
00:12:40 --> 00:12:43 cosmic owl galaxy, which is actually a
00:12:43 --> 00:12:46 pair of ring galaxies about 8.8 billion
00:12:46 --> 00:12:48 lightyears away. The rings appear as owl
00:12:48 --> 00:12:50 eyes as they get closer and closer to
00:12:50 --> 00:12:53 merging. The research led by Peter von
00:12:53 --> 00:12:56 Dakam from Yale's astronomy department
00:12:56 --> 00:12:58 was confirmed using observations from
00:12:58 --> 00:13:01 the James Webb Space Telescope. The
00:13:01 --> 00:13:03 central proposal is that this linear
00:13:03 --> 00:13:06 feature is the wake behind a runaway
00:13:06 --> 00:13:08 super massive black hole and this is
00:13:08 --> 00:13:11 strongly supported by their analysis.
00:13:11 --> 00:13:12 >> But how does something weighing
00:13:12 --> 00:13:14 potentially millions or even billions of
00:13:14 --> 00:13:16 times the mass of our sun get kicked out
00:13:16 --> 00:13:19 of a galaxy? The answer lies in galaxy
00:13:19 --> 00:13:22 mergers. When big galaxies collide and
00:13:22 --> 00:13:24 merge, they force the black holes at
00:13:24 --> 00:13:26 their respective centers into close
00:13:26 --> 00:13:27 proximity.
00:13:27 --> 00:13:29 >> Right? If two black holes become locked
00:13:29 --> 00:13:31 in a gravitational dance and then a
00:13:31 --> 00:13:33 third crashes in from another emerging
00:13:33 --> 00:13:36 galaxy, the resulting instability can
00:13:36 --> 00:13:38 hurl one of the trio away at sufficient
00:13:38 --> 00:13:42 speed to exit the host galaxy entirely.
00:13:42 --> 00:13:43 This can happen through two main
00:13:43 --> 00:13:44 mechanisms.
00:13:44 --> 00:13:47 >> The first is gravitational wave recoil.
00:13:47 --> 00:13:49 When black holes merge, they emitate
00:13:49 --> 00:13:51 gravitational waves that can give the
00:13:51 --> 00:13:54 resulting black hole a velocity boost of
00:13:54 --> 00:13:56 up to several thousand km/s,
00:13:56 --> 00:13:58 propelling it away from the galactic
00:13:58 --> 00:13:59 center.
00:13:59 --> 00:14:01 >> The second mechanism is the classical
00:14:01 --> 00:14:04 slingshot scenario. In this case, a
00:14:04 --> 00:14:06 longived binary black hole forms through
00:14:06 --> 00:14:09 a merger of two galaxies. When a third
00:14:09 --> 00:14:11 super massive black hole is introduced
00:14:11 --> 00:14:13 in a second merger, the threebody
00:14:13 --> 00:14:15 interaction can eject one of the black
00:14:15 --> 00:14:17 holes, usually the lightest one.
00:14:18 --> 00:14:20 >> What's particularly striking about this
00:14:20 --> 00:14:22 confirmed runaway black hole is the
00:14:22 --> 00:14:24 trail it leaves behind. As the black
00:14:24 --> 00:14:26 hole plows through intergalactic space,
00:14:26 --> 00:14:28 it compresses tenuous gas in front of
00:14:28 --> 00:14:31 it, which precipitates the birth of hot
00:14:31 --> 00:14:34 blue stars. This creates a 200
00:14:34 --> 00:14:37 lightyear long contrail of young stars.
00:14:37 --> 00:14:39 The black hole also generates a bow
00:14:39 --> 00:14:41 shock at the head of this week.
00:14:41 --> 00:14:42 Something the researchers predicted
00:14:42 --> 00:14:45 based on shock models. From the ages of
00:14:45 --> 00:14:47 the stars in the trail, they deduced
00:14:47 --> 00:14:49 that the black hole escaped about 40
00:14:49 --> 00:14:51 million years ago and is barreling
00:14:51 --> 00:14:54 through space at roughly 1 km per
00:14:54 --> 00:14:55 second.
00:14:55 --> 00:14:57 >> To put that in perspective, that's fast
00:14:57 --> 00:14:59 enough to travel from Earth to the moon
00:14:59 --> 00:15:02 in about 14 minutes. It's an incredible
00:15:02 --> 00:15:05 speed for something so massive. Recent
00:15:05 --> 00:15:07 papers have shown images of surprisingly
00:15:07 --> 00:15:09 straight streaks of stars within
00:15:09 --> 00:15:11 galaxies that seem to be convincing
00:15:11 --> 00:15:14 evidence for runaway black holes. One
00:15:14 --> 00:15:16 paper describes a very distant galaxy
00:15:16 --> 00:15:18 imaged by James Webb with a bright
00:15:18 --> 00:15:21 contrail suggesting a black hole with a
00:15:21 --> 00:15:23 mass 10 million times the mass of the
00:15:23 --> 00:15:24 sun.
00:15:24 --> 00:15:26 >> It's a reminder that the universe is
00:15:26 --> 00:15:28 even more dynamic and violent than we
00:15:28 --> 00:15:30 often imagine. These behemoths aren't
00:15:30 --> 00:15:32 just sitting quietly at the centers of
00:15:32 --> 00:15:34 galaxies. Some of them are literally
00:15:34 --> 00:15:36 tearing through space, creating new
00:15:36 --> 00:15:37 stars in their wake.
00:15:37 --> 00:15:39 >> And finally, let's talk about an
00:15:39 --> 00:15:42 upcoming event that has both exciting
00:15:42 --> 00:15:45 scientific potential and some concerning
00:15:45 --> 00:15:49 risks. On December 22nd, 2032, asteroid
00:15:49 --> 00:15:54 2024 YR4 has a 4% chance of actually
00:15:54 --> 00:15:55 striking the moon.
00:15:55 --> 00:15:58 >> A 4% chance might not sound like much,
00:15:58 --> 00:16:01 but it's definitely non-negligible. If
00:16:01 --> 00:16:03 this collision does happen, it will
00:16:03 --> 00:16:05 release enough energy to be the
00:16:05 --> 00:16:07 equivalent of smacking our nearest
00:16:07 --> 00:16:09 neighbor with a medium-sized thermal
00:16:09 --> 00:16:11 nuclear weapon. It would be six orders
00:16:11 --> 00:16:13 of magnitude more powerful than the last
00:16:13 --> 00:16:15 major impact on the moon, which happened
00:16:16 --> 00:16:17 back in 2013.
00:16:17 --> 00:16:20 >> A new paper from Yeon Hei of Chin Wua
00:16:20 --> 00:16:21 University looks at the potential
00:16:22 --> 00:16:23 scientific opportunities if this
00:16:23 --> 00:16:25 collision occurs. And while they can
00:16:25 --> 00:16:27 simulate models of how the impact will
00:16:28 --> 00:16:30 go, monitoring it as it happens will
00:16:30 --> 00:16:32 provide never before collected actual
00:16:32 --> 00:16:35 data that's infeasible to get any other
00:16:35 --> 00:16:35 way.
00:16:35 --> 00:16:37 >> The impact would vaporize rock and
00:16:37 --> 00:16:39 plasma and would be clearly visible from
00:16:39 --> 00:16:41 the Pacific region where it will be
00:16:42 --> 00:16:44 nighttime during the impact. Even days
00:16:44 --> 00:16:46 after the impact, the melt pool of the
00:16:46 --> 00:16:49 impacted material will still be cooling,
00:16:49 --> 00:16:51 allowing infrared observers like the
00:16:51 --> 00:16:53 James Web Space Telescope to capture
00:16:53 --> 00:16:55 plenty of data. The impact should form a
00:16:55 --> 00:16:59 crater roughly 1 kilometer wide and 150
00:16:59 --> 00:17:03 to 260 m deep with a 100 meter pool of
00:17:03 --> 00:17:06 molten rock at the center. Comparing it
00:17:06 --> 00:17:08 in size to other craters scattered
00:17:08 --> 00:17:10 around the moon will help us understand
00:17:10 --> 00:17:12 its bombardment history.
00:17:12 --> 00:17:14 >> The impact will also set off a global
00:17:14 --> 00:17:17 moon quake of magnitude 5.0. That would
00:17:17 --> 00:17:19 be the strongest moonquake yet detected
00:17:19 --> 00:17:22 by any seismometer on the moon. Watching
00:17:22 --> 00:17:24 the propagation of the moonquake will
00:17:24 --> 00:17:26 shine a light on the moon's interior and
00:17:26 --> 00:17:28 help researchers understand its
00:17:28 --> 00:17:28 composition.
00:17:28 --> 00:17:30 >> And here's where it gets really
00:17:30 --> 00:17:32 spectacular. A final piece of the
00:17:32 --> 00:17:34 scientific puzzle will be the debris
00:17:34 --> 00:17:38 field created by the blast. Up to 400 kg
00:17:38 --> 00:17:41 of lunar material is expected to survive
00:17:41 --> 00:17:43 re-entry to Earth, creating essentially
00:17:43 --> 00:17:46 a free largecale lunar sample return
00:17:46 --> 00:17:48 mission. At its peak, right around
00:17:48 --> 00:17:51 Christmas of 2032, simulations expect up
00:17:51 --> 00:17:53 to 20 million meteors per hour to hit
00:17:54 --> 00:17:55 our atmosphere, at least on the leading
00:17:56 --> 00:17:57 edge of the planet. Most of them would
00:17:58 --> 00:17:59 have naked eye visibility, including
00:17:59 --> 00:18:03 some 100 to 400 fireballs per hour. But
00:18:03 --> 00:18:06 there is a downside to all of this. That
00:18:06 --> 00:18:09 400 kg of meteors has to land somewhere.
00:18:09 --> 00:18:11 And it looks like the crosshairs fall
00:18:11 --> 00:18:13 squarely on South America, North Africa,
00:18:13 --> 00:18:16 and the Arabian Peninsula. A few
00:18:16 --> 00:18:18 kilograms of space rock falling on Dubai
00:18:18 --> 00:18:20 could certainly cause some damage.
00:18:20 --> 00:18:22 >> Perhaps more dangerous is the risk of
00:18:22 --> 00:18:24 satellite mega constellations that play
00:18:24 --> 00:18:26 such an important role in our modern-day
00:18:26 --> 00:18:29 navigation and internet systems. Such an
00:18:29 --> 00:18:31 event could trigger Kesler syndrome and
00:18:31 --> 00:18:33 bring the entire network down over the
00:18:34 --> 00:18:36 span of a few short years while also
00:18:36 --> 00:18:38 locking us out from being able to get
00:18:38 --> 00:18:40 anything else safely into orbit for much
00:18:40 --> 00:18:43 longer. Due to the risks, some space
00:18:43 --> 00:18:44 agencies are already considering a
00:18:44 --> 00:18:46 deflection mission that would bump
00:18:46 --> 00:18:50 asteroid 2024 YR4 out of the way of a
00:18:50 --> 00:18:52 potential lunar collision. But that
00:18:52 --> 00:18:54 hasn't been set in stone yet. Neither
00:18:54 --> 00:18:57 has the actual impact itself with only a
00:18:57 --> 00:18:59 4% chance of happening. If the odds
00:18:59 --> 00:19:02 increase over the coming years, we as a
00:19:02 --> 00:19:04 species will have to decide whether it's
00:19:04 --> 00:19:07 worth it to deflect it or not. If we do,
00:19:07 --> 00:19:08 we might miss out on a whole bunch of
00:19:08 --> 00:19:11 cool science, but we also might save our
00:19:11 --> 00:19:13 entire orbital infrastructure and the
00:19:13 --> 00:19:14 few lives directly to boot.
00:19:14 --> 00:19:16 >> And that wraps up today's episode of
00:19:16 --> 00:19:19 Astronomy Daily. From Mercury's
00:19:19 --> 00:19:21 surprising activity to a possible lunar
00:19:21 --> 00:19:24 impact in our future, space continues to
00:19:24 --> 00:19:26 surprise and amaze us.
00:19:26 --> 00:19:27 >> Thanks for joining us today. For more
00:19:28 --> 00:19:30 space news and to explore our archive of
00:19:30 --> 00:19:31 episodes, visit our website at
00:19:31 --> 00:19:34 astronomydaily.io.
00:19:34 --> 00:19:36 You can also find us on social media at
00:19:36 --> 00:19:39 Astro Daily Pod on X, Facebook,
00:19:39 --> 00:19:40 Instagram, and YouTube.
00:19:40 --> 00:19:42 >> If you enjoyed today's show, please
00:19:42 --> 00:19:43 subscribe on your favorite podcast
00:19:43 --> 00:19:45 platform and leave us a review. It
00:19:45 --> 00:19:47 really helps other space enthusiasts
00:19:47 --> 00:19:48 find us.
00:19:48 --> 00:19:50 >> Until next time, keep looking up.
00:19:50 --> 00:19:53 >> Clear skies, everyone. Astronomy [music]
00:19:53 --> 00:19:55 day. [singing]
00:19:55 --> 00:20:03 Stories been told.
00:20:03 --> 00:20:11 Stories to tell.
00:20:11 --> 00:20:13 [singing]